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  • Bodnar, Olha
    et al.
    Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Berlin, Gremany.
    Link, Alfred
    Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Berlin, Germany.
    Elster, Clemens
    Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Berlin, Germany.
    Objective Bayesian Inference for a Generalized Marginal Random Effects Model2016Inngår i: Bayesian Analysis, ISSN 1936-0975, E-ISSN 1931-6690, Vol. 11, nr 1, s. 25-45Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    An objective Bayesian inference is proposed for the generalized marginal random effects model p(x|μ, σλ) = f((x − μ1) T (V + σ2 λI) −1 (x − μ1))/ det(V + σ2 λI). The matrix V is assumed to be known, and the goal is to infer μ given the observations x = (x1,...,xn) T , while σλ is a nuisance parameter. In metrology this model has been applied for the adjustment of inconsistent data x1,...,xn, where the matrix V contains the uncertainties quoted for x1,...,xn. √ We show that the reference prior for grouping {μ, σλ} is given by π(μ, σλ) ∝ F22, where F22 denotes the lower right element of the Fisher information matrix F. We give an explicit expression for the reference prior, and we also prove propriety of the resulting posterior as well as the existence of mean and variance of the marginal posterior for μ. Under the additional assumption of normality, we relate the resulting reference analysis to that known for the conventional balanced random effects model in the asymptotic case when the number of repeated within-class observations for that model tends to infinity. We investigate the frequentist properties of the proposed inference for the generalized marginal random effects model through simulations, and we also study its robustness when the underlying distributional assumptions are violated. Finally, we apply the model to the adjustment of current measurements of the Planck constant.

  • Larsson, Karl
    Department of Economics, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
    Reserve Lifetime and Depletion in Exhaustible Resource Extraction Under Uncertainty2014Rapport (Annet (populærvitenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies the implications for reserve lifetime and related quantities in a continuous time model of resource extraction under uncertainty. Both the resource price and the extracted amount are assumed to follow stochastic processes. Reserve lifetime is determined by the profit-maximizing firms optimal decision of when to close down production. We derive closed form expressions for the expected value and the probability distribution of reserve lifetime, the expected level of depletion, and the expected streams of discounted revenues and costs until closing.

  • Larsson, Karl
    Department of Economics, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Lund Sweden.
    An Equilibrium Model for Commodity Prices with Regime Switching Reserve Dynamics2014Rapport (Annet (populærvitenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    We explore the implications for asset prices and implied volatilities in an equilibrium model of commodity production. Production of the commodity can be carried out in one of two regimes. In the first regime the reserves are set in constant decline while in the second regime new additions to the reserve base are made. The optimal production rule is to switch regime when the stochastic revenue process of the producer hits certain barrier values. As a consequence of the optimal production rule equilibrium spot prices also become regime switching. The shapes of forward curves and implied volatilities are strongly dependent on the level of the stochastic revenue process.

  • Andersson, Fredrik
    et al.
    Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), stockholm, Sweden; Department of Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
    Jordahl, Henrik
    Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet. Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm, Sweden; CESifo, Munich, Germany; IZA, Bonn, Germany.
    Josephson, Jens
    Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Business School, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Outsourcing Public Services: Contractibility, Cost, and Quality2019Inngår i: CESifo Economic Studies, ISSN 1610-241X, E-ISSN 1612-7501, Vol. 65, nr 4, s. 349-372Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    We review the literature on public sector outsourcing to explore if the theoretical predictions from the incomplete contracts literature hold up to recent empirical evidence. Guided by theory, we arrange services according to the type and magnitude of their contractibility problems. The empirical studies point at rather favourable outsourcing outcomes, in terms of costs and quality, for services without severe contracting problems. The picture is more mixed for services with tougher contracting problems, with the weight of the evidence in favour of public provision. This difference between services is largely in line with the property-rights framework and theories of incomplete contracts.