To Örebro University

This thesis investigates net-zero transition acceleration challenges in hard-to-abate industries, focusing on heavy-duty freight transport. It examines how incumbent actors, carbon lock-in, and systemic inertia shape decarbonisation progress, which is less likely to result from Schumpeterian creative destruction and more dependent on the reconfiguration of existing socio-technical systems. This recon-figuration perspective forms the theoretical foundation of the thesis and extends to examine the conditions and mechanisms of endogenous socio-technical change processes.

The research integrates organisational studies into transitions research to analyse five acceleration challenges: whole systems change, multi-system dynamics, decline and resistance, shifts in demand patterns, and governance. Empirical insights come from case studies of the European heavy-duty vehicle sector and Swedish electrification and Circular Economy initiatives. Using a multi-method and mixed-method approach, the thesis combines interviews, surveys, and secondary data analysis to examine these challenges for heavy-duty freight transport.

This research offers theoretical contributions to better capture system reconfigurations and the role of incumbents in such processes. It also informs the conceptualisation of three additional acceleration challenges and proposes actionable insights for policymakers, including integrated, multi-system governance approaches and sufficiency-oriented decarbonisation planning.

The German transportation sector's negative contribution to climate change amongst broader social, environmental, and economic problems is applying evermore pressure to the prevailing automobility regime to bring about its transformation. However, the vision of this transition, referred to as the Verkehrswende or Mobilita<spacing diaeresis>tswende, is highly contested, with varying conceptions of different actors about the future of mobility in Germany. A discourse network analysis (DNA) is performed to examine the development of the related policy debate, identify key problem and solution framings and analyse the overall discourse evolution from 2018 to mid-2023. The findings highlight how recent exogenous events shape and reframe the discourse, inciting debates around viable mobility futures. Further, our analysis uncovers a novel discursive strategy termed repugnostic framing, through which incumbent actors aim to oppose the framings of other discursive agents, leading to increased lines of conflict and polarisation, thus possibly hindering effective policy implementation.

The challenge of aligning with the net-zero ambitions of the European Union necessitates a critical examination of the road freight transport sector, a pivotal contributor to global commerce and greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the sector's potential for electrification to mitigate emissions, the prevailing 'predict and provide' planning approach may inadvertently reduce this low-carbon transition to mere technological substitution, neglecting deeper intrinsic transport issues. This perspective critiques the 'predict and provide' approach and advocates for the adoption of 'sufficiency-oriented planning'. It presents a comprehensive, interconnected approach, challenging not only the technology in use but also the foundational principles of transport demand. Furthermore, it explores the broader implications of this multi-system transition for the energy sector. The perspective consequently underscores the necessity of a paradigm shift in planning for road freight transport electrification for the sector to genuinely contribute to sustainability objectives and not risk diminishing the transformative potential of this transition.

Despite regulatory efforts and market availability, the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the road freight sector is limited. This paper investigates the influence of managers' policy mix perceptions on the uptake of ZEVs in Sweden. Based on a survey of transport operation managers, we analyse the interaction between their perceptions of how technology-neutral the prevailing policy mix is, the anticipated regret of premature technology adoption, the rate of technology change and their mutual influence on the decision to delay ZEV adoption. The study's findings reveal a positive correlation between managers' perceptions of technology neutrality and adoption delay. We further explain the mechanism in this relationship by confirming that anticipated regret mediates the positive correlation between perceived technology neutrality and the ZEV adoption delay decision: The more technology-neutral the policy mix is perceived, the more anticipating regret over adopting ZEVs is expressed by the managers, which, in turn, increases the likelihood to delay ZEV adoption. Moreover, managers' perceptions of the rate of technological change affect their anticipated regret. The work contributes to the transition literature by unveiling how a specific policy mix perception, namely technology neutrality, could delay the adoption of ZEVs and calls for a nuanced re-evaluation of the current policy mix to facilitate a faster transition towards net-zero goals. It also underscores the importance of paying closer attention to how individual actor-internal factors (such as perceptions and emotions) of individual decision-makers in organisations may influence transition processes.

Recent work has offered a more nuanced view of incumbent actors' roles in transitions, yet a comprehensive understanding of how reorientation activities and subsequent interaction patterns among different incumbent actor types shape the direction of system reconfigurations remains underexplored. This paper proposes a framework for empirically assessing actors' relational dynamics in response to low-carbon transitions and conceptualises actor interaction types and the nature of their interaction. Through a case study of the low-carbon transition of road freight transport in Sweden, we examine how reorientation dynamics, e.g., coalitions, competition, and contestations, can facilitate and hinder system reconfigurations by creating regime tensions. Our study highlights that incumbency reorientations are multi-dimensional, with actor involvement and strategies varying, leading to divergent actor positions and role constellations as actors attempt to reconfigure the focal regime. Extending beyond the Swedish case, five avenues for future research are outlined.

This paper investigates the potential tensions that may arise between technology-neutral innovation policy and the advancement of sustainability-related objectives, specifically in the context of road freight transport. Despite the availability of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and regulatory actions, widespread adoption of ZEVs among transport operators has been slow. To shed light on potential reasons for this, the paper examines the relationship between perceived technology neutrality of existing policies, contestations over future technological pathways, and anticipated regret on innovation adoption intentions of transport operators with a survey. The findings suggest that technology-neutral policies may contribute to increased uncertainties over future technology pathways and anticipated regret over adoption decisions which may make transport operators hesitant to invest in already available ZEVs. The paper contributes, therefore, to innovation policy development by high-lighting the need to reconsider the principle of technological neutrality and calls for caution when implementing such policies, as it underscores the importance of considering sector-specific challenges and uncertainties when designing effective sustainability-oriented innovation policies.