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Olofsson, S., Gerdtham, U. G., Hultkrantz, L. & Persson, U. (2019). Dread and Risk Elimination Premium for the Value of a Statistical Life. Risk Analysis, 39(11), 2391-2407
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Dread and Risk Elimination Premium for the Value of a Statistical Life
2019 (English)In: Risk Analysis, ISSN 0272-4332, E-ISSN 1539-6924, Vol. 39, no 11, p. 2391-2407Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a widely used measure for the value of mortality risk reduction. As VSL should reflect preferences and attitudes to risk, there are reasons to believe that it varies depending on the type of risk involved. It has been argued that cancer should be considered a "dread disease," which supports the use of a "cancer premium." The objective of this study is to investigate the existence of a cancer premium (for pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma) in relation to road traffic accidents, sudden cardiac arrest, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Data were collected from 500 individuals in the Swedish general population of 50-74-year olds using a web-based questionnaire. Preferences were elicited using the contingent valuation method, and a split-sample design was applied to test scale sensitivity. VSL differs significantly between contexts, being highest for ALS and lowest for road traffic accidents. A premium (92-113%) for cancer was found in relation to road traffic accidents. The premium was higher for cancer with a shorter time from diagnosis to death. A premium was also found for sudden cardiac arrest (73%) and ALS (118%) in relation to road traffic accidents. Eliminating risk was associated with a premium of around 20%. This study provides additional evidence that there exist a dread premium and risk elimination premium. These factors should be considered when searching for an appropriate value for economic evaluation and health technology assessment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Blackwell Publishing, 2019
Keywords
Cancer premium, VSL, risk elimination, stated preferences, willingness to pay
National Category
Cancer and Oncology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-74704 (URN)10.1111/risa.13341 (DOI)000494483400005 ()31194898 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85067397721 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies:

Johnson & Johnson USA

Janssen Biotech Inc

Available from: 2019-06-17 Created: 2019-06-17 Last updated: 2019-11-22Bibliographically approved
Nystrand, C., Hultkrantz, L., Vimefall, E. & Feldman, I. (2019). Economic Return on Investment of Parent Training Programmes for the Prevention of Child Externalising Behaviour Problems. Administration and Policy in Mental Health
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economic Return on Investment of Parent Training Programmes for the Prevention of Child Externalising Behaviour Problems
2019 (English)In: Administration and Policy in Mental Health, ISSN 0894-587X, E-ISSN 1573-3289Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Economic models to inform decision-making are gaining popularity, especially for preventive interventions. However, there are few estimates of the long-term returns to parenting interventions used to prevent mental health problems in children. Using data from a randomised controlled trial evaluating five indicated parenting interventions for parents of children aged 5-12, we modeled the economic returns resulting from reduced costs in the health care and education sector, and increased long-term productivity in a Swedish setting. Analyses done on the original trial population, and on various sized local community populations indicated positive benefit-cost ratios. Even smaller local authorities would financially break-even, thus interventions were of good value-for-money. Benefit-cost analyses of such interventions may improve the basis for resource allocation within local decision-making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer-Verlag New York, 2019
Keywords
Benefit–cost analysis, Mental health, Parenting
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-77460 (URN)10.1007/s10488-019-00984-5 (DOI)000491455800001 ()31630323 (PubMedID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2014-10,128
Available from: 2019-10-21 Created: 2019-10-21 Last updated: 2019-11-21Bibliographically approved
Hultkrantz, L. (2019). Företagande långt från storstäderna: Vilken betydelse har flyg, bredband och annan infrastruktur?. In: Karl Wennberg (Ed.), Entreprenörskap för en levande landsbygd. 15 texter om landsbygdsutveckling och entreprenörskap i Norrland.: (pp. 61-80). Växjö: Familjen Kamprads stiftelse
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Företagande långt från storstäderna: Vilken betydelse har flyg, bredband och annan infrastruktur?
2019 (Swedish)In: Entreprenörskap för en levande landsbygd. 15 texter om landsbygdsutveckling och entreprenörskap i Norrland. / [ed] Karl Wennberg, Växjö: Familjen Kamprads stiftelse , 2019, p. 61-80Chapter in book (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Växjö: Familjen Kamprads stiftelse, 2019
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-78915 (URN)978-91-519-1977-5 (ISBN)
Available from: 2020-01-08 Created: 2020-01-08 Last updated: 2020-01-10Bibliographically approved
Vimefall, E., Persson, M., Sara, O. & Hultkrantz, L. (2019). Is Prevention of Suicides Less important than Prevention of Other Fatalities?: A comparison of the Value of Statisitcal Life for Suicide vs Trafic Fatality Reduction. In: Massimo Moscarelli (Ed.), Fourteenth Workshop on Costs and Assessment in Psychiatry ‘The Value of Mental Health Services’ Venice - March 29-31, 2019: Book of Abstracts. Paper presented at 14th Workshop on Costs and Assessment in Psychiatry - The Value of Mental Health Services, Venice, Italy, March 29-31, 2019 (pp. 35-35). John Wiley & Sons, 22
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Is Prevention of Suicides Less important than Prevention of Other Fatalities?: A comparison of the Value of Statisitcal Life for Suicide vs Trafic Fatality Reduction
2019 (English)In: Fourteenth Workshop on Costs and Assessment in Psychiatry ‘The Value of Mental Health Services’ Venice - March 29-31, 2019: Book of Abstracts / [ed] Massimo Moscarelli, John Wiley & Sons, 2019, Vol. 22, p. 35-35Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2019
Series
The Journal of Mental Health Policy and Economics, ISSN 1091-4358, E-ISSN 1099-176X
Keywords
Suicide prevention, Willingness to pay, Value of Statistical life
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-76942 (URN)
Conference
14th Workshop on Costs and Assessment in Psychiatry - The Value of Mental Health Services, Venice, Italy, March 29-31, 2019
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2014-10128
Available from: 2019-10-02 Created: 2019-10-02 Last updated: 2019-10-04Bibliographically approved
Olofsson, S., Gerdtham, U.-G., Hultkrantz, L. & Persson, U. (2019). Value of a QALY and VSI estimated with the chained approach. European Journal of Health Economics, 20(7), 1063-1077
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Value of a QALY and VSI estimated with the chained approach
2019 (English)In: European Journal of Health Economics, ISSN 1618-7598, E-ISSN 1618-7601, Vol. 20, no 7, p. 1063-1077Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The value of a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and the value of a statistical injury (VSI) are important measures within health economics and transport economics. Several studies have, therefore, estimated people's willingness to pay (WTP) for these estimates, but most results show scale insensitivity. The 'original' chained approach (CA) is a method developed to mitigate this problem by combining the contingent valuation (CV) with standard gamble (SG). In contrast to the version of the CA applied by the previous research of the WTP for a QALY, the original version allows the value of major health gains to be estimated without having the respondents express their WTP directly. The objective of this study was to estimate the value of a QALY and VSI in the context of non-fatal road traffic accidents using the original CA to test if the approach, applied to a wide range of health gains, is able to derive valid estimates and a constant value of a QALY which the previous research has not been able to show. Data were collected from a total of 800 individuals in the Swedish adult general population using two web-based questionnaires. The values of a QALY based on trimmed estimates were close to constant at €300,000 irrespective of the size of the QALY gain. The study shows that the original CA method may be a valid method to estimate the value of a QALY and VSI for major health losses. It also supports the use of a higher threshold value for a QALY than that which is currently applied by several health technology assessment agencies in different countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2019
Keywords
Chained approach, Contingent valuation, Quality-adjusted life-years, Scale sensitivity, Willingness to pay
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-74652 (URN)10.1007/s10198-019-01077-8 (DOI)000480472300009 ()31172400 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85067058474 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Available from: 2019-06-10 Created: 2019-06-10 Last updated: 2019-11-14Bibliographically approved
Hultkrantz, L. (2018). Benefit-Cost Evaluation of Prevention and Early Intervention Measures for Children and Youth in Sweden. In: Mario La Torre, Mario Calderini (Ed.), Mario La TorreMario Calderini (Ed.), Social Impact Investing Beyond the SIB: Evidence from the Market. Paper presented at Social Impact Investments (SII) International Conference, Rome, Italy, October 11-12, 2017 (pp. 177-194). Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Benefit-Cost Evaluation of Prevention and Early Intervention Measures for Children and Youth in Sweden
2018 (English)In: Social Impact Investing Beyond the SIB: Evidence from the Market / [ed] Mario La TorreMario Calderini, Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, p. 177-194Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This chapter reports on an on-going effort in Sweden to create a societal benefit-cost model for evaluation of causal effects of interventions for supporting children and young people at some developmental risk. This work is motivated by needs for such evaluation tools in planning, selection and follow-up of public and private impact investments. So far, modules have been created for economic evaluation of life-course, labour-market-related outcomes, some short- and medium-term cost offsets and the value of mortality and morbidity effects. On-going work includes estimation of the willingness to pay for suicide prevention and the costs of crime. However, as indicated by two case studies that are briefly summarised, even incomplete estimates of the benefit side are sometime sufficient to indicate high societal returns of early intervention and prevention measures.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018
Series
Palgrave Studies in Impact Finance
Keywords
Social impact investments, Benefit-cost analysis, Cost-effectiveness analysis
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-68625 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-78322-2_7 (DOI)000460320300007 ()978-3-319-78321-5 (ISBN)978-3-319-78322-2 (ISBN)
Conference
Social Impact Investments (SII) International Conference, Rome, Italy, October 11-12, 2017
Available from: 2018-08-29 Created: 2018-08-29 Last updated: 2019-03-19Bibliographically approved
Andersson, H., Hultkrantz, L., Lindberg, G. & Nilsson, J.-E. (2018). Economic Analysis and Investment Priorities in Sweden's Transport Sector. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 9(1), 120-146
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economic Analysis and Investment Priorities in Sweden's Transport Sector
2018 (English)In: Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, ISSN 2194-5888, E-ISSN 2152-2812, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 120-146Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Beginning as a planning tool within Sweden's national road administration some 50 years ago, benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has come to be a pillar of the national transport policy because of subsequent strategic choices made by the national parliament. These choices made it necessary to widen the analysis of costs to include also externalities and a foregone conclusion was that efficient investment priorities should be made based on BCA. But no one asked whether the political decision makers or the BCA models were up to that task. This paper reviews the institutional framework and practice of BCA in Sweden for transport infrastructure investment, and considers design issues that have been and still are debated, such as whether the discount rate should include a risk term and how to account for the marginal cost of public funds. A main concern with BCA results is the underestimation of construction costs, making transport sector projects look better than they are. Several ex post analyses have established that a higher NPV ratio increases the probability of being included in the investment program proposal prepared by the agency. The requirement to let projects undergo BCA seems to make planners trim project proposals by trying to reduce investment costs without significantly reducing benefits. This relationship is weaker among profitable projects. Moreover, there is no correlation between rate of return and the probability of being included in the final program, which is established on political grounds.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2018
Keywords
benefit-cost analysis, rail, road, Sweden, transport sector institutions
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-66992 (URN)10.1017/bca.2018.3 (DOI)000431405400006 ()
Note

Funding Agencies:

VTI  

Centre for Transport Studies, Stockholm 

Available from: 2018-05-18 Created: 2018-05-18 Last updated: 2018-08-31Bibliographically approved
Mantalos, P. & Hultkrantz, L. (2018). Estimating 'gamma' for tail-hedge discount rates when project returns are cointegrated with GDP. Applied Economics, 50(37), 4074-4085
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating 'gamma' for tail-hedge discount rates when project returns are cointegrated with GDP
2018 (English)In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, Vol. 50, no 37, p. 4074-4085Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Martin Weitzman has suggested a method for calculating social discount rates for long-term investments when project returns are covariant with consumption or other macroeconomic variables, so-called tail-hedge discounting'. This method relies on a parameter called real project gamma' that measures the proportion of project returns that is covariant with the macroeconomic variable. We compare two approaches for estimation of this gamma when the project returns and the macroeconomic variable are cointegrated. First, we use Weitzman's own approach, and second a simple data transformation that keeps gamma within the zero to one interval. In a Monte-Carlo study, we show that the method of using a standardized series is better and robust under different data-generating processes. Both approaches are examined in a Monte-Carlo experiment and applied to Swedish time-series data from 1950-2011 for annual time-series data for rail freight (a measure of returns from rail investments) and GDP.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2018
Keywords
Social discount rate, cost-benefit analysis, consumption CAPM, real project gamma
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-68101 (URN)10.1080/00036846.2018.1441511 (DOI)000435001900007 ()2-s2.0-85042440814 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-07-24 Created: 2018-07-24 Last updated: 2018-07-24Bibliographically approved
Hultkrantz, L. & Mantalos, P. (2018). Hedging with trees: Tail-hedge discounting of long-term forestry returns. Journal of Forest Economics, 30, 52-57
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hedging with trees: Tail-hedge discounting of long-term forestry returns
2018 (English)In: Journal of Forest Economics, ISSN 1104-6899, E-ISSN 1618-1530, Vol. 30, p. 52-57Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Tail-hedge discounting is based on decomposition of returns from long-term investments in a fraction (gamma) that is correlated with consumption and another that is not. The first part is discounted at a discount rate that includes a risk premium, the other with the risk-free rate. We estimate gamma for forestry on Swedish data for stumpage prices and GDP per capita 1909-2012. We demonstrate that the result considerably changes the expected present value of medium-term and long-term forest investments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Discounting, Far-distant future, Declining discount rates, Forestry, Forest economics, Cost-benefit analysis
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-66586 (URN)10.1016/j.jfe.2018.02.001 (DOI)000428028000006 ()2-s2.0-85042597191 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-04-13 Created: 2018-04-13 Last updated: 2018-04-13Bibliographically approved
Nystrand, C., Hultkrantz, L., Vimefall, E., Sampaio, F. & Feldman, I. (2018). Indicated Parenting Interventions and Long Term Outcomes: A Health Economic Modeling Study. In: : . Paper presented at ISPOR 8th Asia-Pacific Conference, Tokyo, Japan, September 8-11, 2018 (pp. S76-S76). Elsevier, 21
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Indicated Parenting Interventions and Long Term Outcomes: A Health Economic Modeling Study
Show others...
2018 (English)Conference paper, Poster (with or without abstract) (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Economic evaluations of early interventions for children are augmenting in numbers and a larger focus is put on the longer-term economic returns. However, little is known about the labour market returns from preventive parenting programs. This study estimates the benefits and costs of five parenting interventions: Comet, Connect, the Incredible Years (IY), Cope and bibliotherapy, compared to a waitlist control, for the prevention of persistent externalizing behavior problems in children.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Series
Value in Health, ISSN 1098-3015, E-ISSN 1524-4733
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-70400 (URN)10.1016/j.jval.2018.07.571 (DOI)000458697200419 ()
Conference
ISPOR 8th Asia-Pacific Conference, Tokyo, Japan, September 8-11, 2018
Note

Camilla Nystrand presenterade abstractet på konferensen.

Available from: 2018-11-30 Created: 2018-11-30 Last updated: 2019-03-01Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-1172-1076

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