Background: The prognostic value of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics in untreated prostate cancer (PCa) patients is debatable. We investigated the association between PSA doubling time (PSAdt), PSA velocity (PSAvel) and PSAvel risk count (PSAvRC) and PCa mortality in a cohort of patients with localised PCa managed on watchful waiting.

Patients and methods: Patients with clinically localised PCa managed observationally, who were randomised to and remained on placebo for minimum 18 months in the SPCG-6 study, were included. All patients survived at least 2 years and had a minimum of three PSA determinations available. The prognostic value of PSA kinetics was analysed and patients were stratified according to their PSA at consent: ≤10, 10.1-25, and >25 ng/ml. Cumulative incidences of PCa-specific mortality were estimated with the Aalen-Johansen method.

Results: Two hundred and sixty-three patients were included of which 116, 76 and 71 had a PSA at consent ≤10, 10.1-25, and >25 ng/ml, respectively. Median follow-up was 13.6 years. For patients with PSA at consent between 10.1 and 25 ng/ml, the 13-year risks of PCa mortality were associated with PSA kinetics: PSAdt ≤3 years: 62.0% versus PSAdt >3 years: 16.3% (Gray's test: P < 0.0001), PSAvel ≥2 ng/ml/year: 48.0% versus PSAvel <2 ng/ml/year: 11.0% (Gray's test: P = 0.0008), and PSAvRC 2: 45.0% versus 0-1: 3.8% (Gray's test: P = 0.001). In contrast, none of the PSA kinetics were significantly associated with changes of 13-year risks of PCa mortality in patients with PSA at consent ≤10 or >25 ng/ml.

Conclusion: We found that magnitude changes in 13-year risks of PCa mortality that can be indicated by PSA kinetics depend on PSA level in patients with localised PCa who were managed observationally. Our results question PSA kinetics as surrogate marker for PCa mortality in patients with low and high PSA values.

Assessing the extent of PI3K pathway activity in cancer is vital to predicting sensitivity to PI3K-targeting drugs, but the best biomarker of PI3K pathway activity in archival tumor specimens is unclear. Here, PI3K pathway activation was assessed, in clinical tissue from 1,021 men with prostate cancers, using multiple pathway nodes that include PTEN, phosphorylated AKT (pAKT), phosphorylated ribosomal protein S6 (pS6), and stathmin. Based on these markers, a 9-point score of PI3K activation was created using the combined intensity of the 4-markers and analyzed its association with proliferation (Ki67), apoptosis (TUNEL), and androgen receptor (AR) status, as well as pathologic features and cancer-specific outcomes. In addition, the PI3K activation score was compared with mRNA expression profiling data for a large subset of men. Interestingly, those tumors with higher PI3K activation scores also had higher Gleason grade (P = 0.006), increased AR (r = 0.37; P < 0.001) and Ki67 (r = 0.24; P < 0.001), and decreased TUNEL (r = -0.12; P = 0.003). Although the PI3K activation score was not associated with an increased risk of lethal outcome, a significant interaction between lethal outcome, Gleason and high PI3K score (P = 0.03) was observed. Finally, enrichment of PI3K-specific pathways was found in the mRNA expression patterns differentiating the low and high PI3K activation scores; thus, the 4-marker IHC score of PI3K pathway activity correlates with features of PI3K activation.

Background: Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a viable option for treatment of aggressive multiple sclerosis (MS). No randomised controlled trial has been performed, and thus, experiences from systematic and sustained follow-up of treated patients constitute important information about safety and efficacy. In this observational study, we describe the characteristics and outcome of the Swedish patients treated with HSCT for MS.

Methods: Neurologists from the major hospitals in Sweden filled out a follow-up form with prospectively collected data. Fifty-two patients were identified in total; 48 were included in the study and evaluated for safety and side effects; 41 patients had at least 1 year of follow-up and were further analysed for clinical and radiological outcome. In this cohort, 34 patients (83%) had relapsing-remitting MS, and mean follow-up time was 47 months.

Results: At 5 years, relapse-free survival was 87%; MRI event-free survival 85%; expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score progression-free survival 77%; and disease-free survival (no relapses, no new MRI lesions and no EDSS progression) 68%. Presence of gadolinium-enhancing lesions prior to HSCT was associated with a favourable outcome (disease-free survival 79% vs 46%, p=0.028). There was no mortality. The most common long-term side effects were herpes zoster reactivation (15%) and thyroid disease (8.4%).

Conclusions: HSCT is a very effective treatment of inflammatory active MS and can be performed with a high degree of safety at experienced centres.

Background: Radical prostatectomy reduces mortality among men with localized prostate cancer; however, important questions regarding long-term benefit remain.

Methods: Between 1989 and 1999, we randomly assigned 695 men with early prostate cancer to watchful waiting or radical prostatectomy and followed them through the end of 2012. The primary end points in the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group Study Number 4 (SPCG-4) were death from any cause, death from prostate cancer, and the risk of metastases. Secondary end points included the initiation of androgen-deprivation therapy.

Results: During 23.2 years of follow-up, 200 of 347 men in the surgery group and 247 of the 348 men in the watchful-waiting group died. Of the deaths, 63 in the surgery group and 99 in the watchful-waiting group were due to prostate cancer; the relative risk was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.77; P=0.001), and the absolute difference was 11.0 percentage points (95% CI, 4.5 to 17.5). The number needed to treat to prevent one death was 8. One man died after surgery in the radical-prostatectomy group. Androgen-deprivation therapy was used in fewer patients who underwent prostatectomy (a difference of 25.0 percentage points; 95% CI, 17.7 to 32.3). The benefit of surgery with respect to death from prostate cancer was largest in men younger than 65 years of age (relative risk, 0.45) and in those with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (relative risk, 0.38). However, radical prostatectomy was associated with a reduced risk of metastases among older men (relative risk, 0.68; P=0.04).

Conclusions: Extended follow-up confirmed a substantial reduction in mortality after radical prostatectomy; the number needed to treat to prevent one death continued to decrease when the treatment was modified according to age at diagnosis and tumor risk. A large proportion of long-term survivors in the watchful-waiting group have not required any palliative treatment. (Funded by the Swedish Cancer Society and others.)

The randomized Swedish trial of prostatectomy versus watchful waiting in disease detected mainly clinically (not by PSA screening) continues to show a benefit for early prostatectomy. The number of men younger than 65 needed to treat to prevent one death is now four. The Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group Study Number 4 (SPCG-4), a randomized trial of radical prostatectomy versus watchful waiting in men with localized prostate cancer diagnosed before the era of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, showed a survival benefit of radical prostatectomy as compared with observation at 15 years of follow-up.(1) By contrast, the Prostate Cancer Intervention versus Observation Trial (PIVOT), initiated in the early era of PSA testing, showed that radical prostatectomy did not significantly reduce prostate cancer-specific or overall mortality after 12 years.(2) PSA screening profoundly changes the clinical domain of study. Among other considerations, the substantial additional lead time ...

Background: The epidemiological evidence on possible relationships between coffee consumption and prostate cancer (PCa) risk by subtype of the disease (localized, advanced) and fatal PCa risk is limited.

Materials and methods: A population-based cohort of 44 613 Swedish men aged 45-79 years was followed up from January 1998 through December 2010 for incidence of localized (n = 2368), advanced (n = 918) and fatal (n = 515) PCa. We assessed the associations between coffee consumption and localized, advanced and fatal PCa risk using competing-risk regressions. We examined possible effect modification by body mass index (BMI).

Results: For localized PCa, each one cup increase in daily coffee consumption was associated with a 3% reduced risk [sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.95-0.99]. For advanced and fatal PCa, we found a non-significant inverse association; each one cup increase was associated with a 2% reduced risk of advanced [SHR (95% CI) = 0.98 (0.95-1.02)] and fatal PCa [SHR (95% CI) = 0.98 (0.93-1.03)]. We observed evidence of effect modification by BMI for localized PCa (P-interaction = 0.03); the inverse association was stronger among overweight and obese men (BMI >= 25 kg/m(2)) compared with normal-weight men (BMI < 25 kg/m(2)).

Conclusions: We observed a clear inverse association between coffee consumption and risk of localized PCa, especially among overweight and obese men.

In 1987, the first Regional Prostate Cancer Register was set up in the South-East health-care region of Sweden. Other health-care regions joined and since 1998 virtually all prostate cancer (PCa) cases are registered in the National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR) of Sweden to provide data for quality assurance, bench marking and clinical research. NPCR includes data on tumour stage, Gleason score, serum level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and primary treatment. In 2008, the NPCR was linked to a number of other population-based registers by use of the personal identity number. This database named Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) has now been extended with more cases, longer follow-up and a selection of two control series of men free of PCa at the time of sampling, as well as information on brothers of men diagnosed with PCa, resulting in PCBaSe 2.0. This extension allows for studies with case-control, cohort or longitudinal case-only design on aetiological factors, pharmaceutical prescriptions and assessment of long-term outcomes. The NPCR covers > 96% of all incident PCa cases registered by the Swedish Cancer Register, which has an underreporting of < 3.7%. The NPCR is used to assess trends in incidence, treatment and outcome of men with PCa. Since the national registers linked to PCBaSe are complete, studies from PCBaSe 2.0 are truly population based.

Background Hip surgery is associated with the risk of postoperative urinary retention. To avoid urinary retention hip surgery patients undergo urinary catheterisation. Urinary catheterisation, however, is associated with increased risk for urinary tract infection (UTI). At present, there is limited evidence for whether intermittent or indwelling urinary catheterisation is the preferred choice for short-term bladder drainage in patients undergoing hip surgery.

Objectives The aim of the study was to investigate differences between intermittent and indwelling urinary catheterisation in hip surgery patients in relation to nosocomial UTI and cost-effectiveness.

Design Randomised controlled trial with cost-effectiveness analysis.

Setting The study was carried out at an orthopaedic department at a Swedish University Hospital.

Methods One hundred and seventy hip surgery patients (patients with fractures or with osteoarthritis) were randomly allocated to either intermittent or indwelling urinary catheterisation. Data collection took place at four time points: during stay in hospital, at discharge and at 4 weeks and 4 months after discharge.

Results Eighteen patients contracted nosocomial UTIs, 8 in the intermittent catheterisation group and 10 in the indwelling catheterisation group (absolute difference 2.4%, 95% CI −6.9–11.6%) The patients in the intermittent catheterisation group were more often catheterised (p < 0.001) and required more bladder scans (p < 0.001) but regained normal bladder function sooner than the patients in the indwelling catheterisation group (p < 0.001). Fourteen percent of the patients in the intermittent group did not need any catheterisation. Cost-effectiveness was similar between the indwelling and intermittent urinary catheterisation methods.

Conclusions Both indwelling and intermittent methods could be appropriate in clinical practice. Both methods have advantages and disadvantages but by not using routine indwelling catheterisation, unnecessary catheterisations might be avoided in this patient group.

Background: Most localized prostate cancers are believed to have an indolent course. Within 15 yr of diagnosis, most deaths among men with prostate cancer (PCa) can be attributed to other competing causes. However, data from studies with extended follow-up are insufficient to determine appropriate treatment for men with localized disease.

Objective: To investigate the long-term natural history of untreated, early-stage PCa.

Design, setting, and participants: We conducted a population-based, prospective-cohort study using a consecutive sample of 223 patients with untreated, localized PCa from a regionally well-defined catchment area in central Sweden. All subjects were initially managed with observation. Androgen deprivation therapy was administered when symptomatic tumor progression occurred.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Based on >30 yr of follow-up, the main outcome measures were: progression-free, cause-specific, and overall survival, and rates of progression and mortality per 1000 person-years.

Results and limitations: After 32 yr of follow-up, all but 3 (1%) of the 223 men had died. We observed 90 (41.4%) local progression events and 41 (18.4%) cases of progression to distant metastasis. In total, 38 (17%) men died of PCa. Cause-specific survival decreased between 15 and 20 yr, but stabilized with further follow-up. All nine men with Gleason grade 8-10 disease died within the first 10 yr of follow-up, five (55%) from PCa. Survival for men with well-differentiated, nonpalpable tumors declined slowly through 20 yr, and more rapidly between 20 and 25 yr (from 75.2% [95% confidence interval, 48.4-89.3] to 25% [95% confidence interval, 22.0-72.5]). It is unclear whether these data are relevant for tumors detected by elevated prostate-specific antigen levels.

Conclusions: Although localized PCa most often has an indolent course, local progression and distant metastasis can develop over the long term, even among patients considered low risk at diagnosis.

Objective. To validate the Swedish versions of the Incontinence Impact Questionnaire (IIQ-7) and Urogenital Distress Inventory (UDI-6). Design and setting. Prospective study, university hospital. Population and method. We analyzed reliability, validity, and responsiveness in a clinical sample of 96 women with urinary incontinence. Main outcome measures. Construct and criterion validity, reliability via test-retest and internal consistency. Responsiveness via calculation of effect size. Result. Test-retest reliability ranged from moderate to almost perfect. Cronbach's alpha was 0.39 (UDI-6) and 0.83 (IIQ-7). Effect size calculation of change after treatment demonstrated good responsiveness. The effect size at six months was moderate in the Stress Urinary Incontinence group and small in the Urge Urinary Incontinence + Mixed Urinary Incontinence group. There was a moderate to strong correlation between UDI-6 and IIQ-7 and treatment satisfaction at six, 12, and 24 months for both groups. Conclusion. The UDI-6 scale did not produce the same solid result in the psychometric analysis as the IIQ-7 scale, but these newly translated Swedish forms of UDI-6 and IIQ-7 show good responsiveness and are easy to administer and to fill out.

Objective: This study aimed to develop a probabilistic decision support model to calculate the lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between radical prostatectomy and watchful waiting for different patient groups.

Material and methods: A randomized trial (SPCG-4) provided most data for this study. Data on survival, costs and quality of life were inputs in a decision analysis, and a decision support model was developed. The model can generate cost-effectiveness information on subgroups of patients with different characteristics.

Results: Age was the most important independent factor explaining cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness value varied from 21,026 Swedish kronor (SEK) to 858,703 SEK for those aged 65 to 75 years, depending on Gleason scores and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. Information from the decision support model can support decision makers in judging whether or not radical prostatectomy (RP) should be used to treat a specific patient group.

Conclusions: The cost-effectiveness ratio for RP varies with age, Gleason scores, and PSA values. Assuming a threshold value of 200,000 SEK per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, for patients aged ≤70 years the treatment was always cost-effective, except at age 70, Gleason 0-4 and PSA ≤10. Using the same threshold value at age 75, Gleason 7-9 (regardless of PSA) and Gleason 5-6 (with PSA >20) were cost-effective. Hence, RP was not perceived to be cost-effective in men aged 75 years with low Gleason and low PSA. Higher threshold values for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer could be discussed