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Effects of US Policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 50, nr 2, s. 443-462Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty—measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (Measuring economic policy uncertainty, 2013)—on Swedish GDP growth.Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis to quarterly data from 1988 to 2013. Results show that increasing US policy uncertainty has significant negative effects on Swedish GDP growth. The effect seems to primarily stem from effects on investment growth and export growth. Our findings should prove useful to those who analyse and forecast the Swedish economy and potentially also other similar small open economies.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Springer, 2016. Vol. 50, nr 2, s. 443-462
Nyckelord [en]
Spillovers, Small open economy, Political uncertainty index, Bayesian VAR, Spectral analysis
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61616DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0934-yISI: 000370042700009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84957434155OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61616DiVA, id: diva2:1150100
Tillgänglig från: 2017-10-17 Skapad: 2017-10-17 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-10-19Bibliografiskt granskad

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