oru.sePublikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Phillips Curve
Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0203-4688
Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2019 (Engelska)Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

We use Bayesian techniques to estimate bivariate VAR models for Swedish unem-ployment rate and inflation. Employing quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2018Q3 and new tools for model selection, we compare models with time-varying parameters and/or stochastic volatility to specifications with constant parameters and/or covariance matrix. The evidence in favour of a stable dynamic relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation is mixed. Model selection based on marginal like-lihood calculations indicates that the relation is time varying, whereas the use of the deviance information criterion suggests that it is constant over time; we do, however, note consistent evidence in favour of stochastic volatility. An out-of-sample forecast exercise is also conducted, but similarly provides mixed evidence regarding which model to favour. Importantly though, even if time-varying parameters are allowed for, our results do not suggest that the Phillips curve has been flatter in more recent years. This finding thereby questions the explanation that a flatter Phillips curve is the cause of the low inflation that Sweden has experienced in recent year

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Springer, 2019.
Nyckelord [en]
Inflation, Unemployment, Time-varying parameters, Stochastic volatility
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
Forskningsämne
Statistik; Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-78301DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01746-wOAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-78301DiVA, id: diva2:1374383
Forskningsfinansiär
Jan Wallanders och Tom Hedelius stiftelse, P18-0201Tillgänglig från: 2019-11-29 Skapad: 2019-11-29 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-12-03Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Personposter BETA

Karlsson, SuneÖsterholm, Pär

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Karlsson, SuneÖsterholm, Pär
Av organisationen
Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet
I samma tidskrift
Empirical Economics
NationalekonomiSannolikhetsteori och statistik

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 173 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf