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The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?
Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2010 (engelsk)Inngår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 779-792Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the twomodels is established formany countries, but the results aremixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Physica Verlag, 2010. Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 779-792
Emneord [en]
Unit root; Persistence; Labour market
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61070DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0290-xISI: 000275753600014Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-77951205941OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61070DiVA, id: diva2:1141783
Tilgjengelig fra: 2017-09-15 Laget: 2017-09-15 Sist oppdatert: 2017-09-22bibliografisk kontrollert

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