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External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model
International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2010 (Engelska)Ingår i: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 33, nr 12, s. 1788-1810Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surrounding macroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variance decomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most important factors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 per cent of the variance in Colombian GDP growth respectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used to analyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we show that the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growth would be non-negligible but that the decline still would be mild by historical standards.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Wiley-Blackwell, 2010. Vol. 33, nr 12, s. 1788-1810
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61615DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01288.xISI: 000285764700006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-82455250199OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61615DiVA, id: diva2:1150099
Tillgänglig från: 2017-10-17 Skapad: 2017-10-17 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-10-19Bibliografiskt granskad

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