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Analysts versus the random walk in financial forecasting: evidence from the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9024-3054
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden .ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2024 (English)In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, Vol. 56, no 17, p. 2077-2088Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate that the analysts are able to significantly outperform the random-walk forecast in terms of forecast precision for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the one-month forecasting horizon. For the five- and ten-year interest rate swap rates, the random walk significantly outperforms the analysts at both the one-month and one-year forecasting horizons. For the CZK/EUR exchange rate, the random-walk forecast has a lower root mean squared forecast error than that of the analysts' forecast at the one-month horizon whereas at the one-year horizon the opposite is found; however, none of these differences are statistically significant.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2024. Vol. 56, no 17, p. 2077-2088
Keywords [en]
Survey data, out-of-sample forecasts, exchange rates, interest rates
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-105061DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2178633ISI: 000937799800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85148603669OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-105061DiVA, id: diva2:1744551
Available from: 2023-03-20 Created: 2023-03-20 Last updated: 2024-06-17Bibliographically approved

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Kladivko, KamilÖsterholm, Pär

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CiteExportLink to record
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