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Foresighting network dynamics: A Delphi-based Scenario Analysis
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9448-2359
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5658-8868
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9964-7717
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0604-5686
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2023 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This study explores the future of Sweden's electric utility network and its transition towards sustainability and resilience by combining traditional scenario analysis with foresighting, an anticipatory, non-predictive approach. The research focuses on potential disruptive innovations and changes within the industry, such as increased electrification, electromobility, and advances in grid infrastructure, using a Delphi study. This approach involves gathering expert opinions from various stakeholders, including industry, academia, and government experts, to anticipate multiple future scenarios and better prepare for potential challenges and opportunities. The interconnected nature of the electric utility network and the relationships between various actors play a critical role in shaping the industry's future. Foresighting allows stakeholders to anticipate and prepare for disruptive changes, such as the increasing role of prosumers, local microgrids, and novel value propositions. By employing the Delphi methodology, the study systematically gathers and synthesizes expert insights, offering a comprehensive understanding of the electric utility network's future development. The findings highlight the importance of improving end-customer relationships and enabling the use of prosumer products and services. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the need to address existing challenges within the Swedish power grid and increase transmission capacity to support the introduction of new technologies and a more efficient and sustainable energy system. By integrating the Industrial Marketing and Purchasing (IMP) network perspective, the study demonstrates that foresighting is more effective in accounting for exceptional events and non-linear growth patterns in the electric utility market. The results also provide insights into the emergence of new business models and the role of emerging technologies, such as energy storage, in shaping the future of the electric utility network.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023.
National Category
Business Administration
Research subject
Business Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-107833OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-107833DiVA, id: diva2:1791020
Conference
39th Annual IMP Conference (IMP 2023), Manchester, UK, August 22-25, 2023
Available from: 2023-08-24 Created: 2023-08-24 Last updated: 2023-08-24Bibliographically approved

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Carlborg, PerHasche, NinaKask, JohanKlézl, VojtechLinton, Gabriel

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