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A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation
International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA; Free University Berlin, Berlin, Germany; CESifo, Munich, Germany.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0203-4688
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden; School of Economics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2023 (English)In: Scottish Journal of Political Economy, ISSN 0036-9292, E-ISSN 1467-9485, Vol. 70, no 5, p. 479-496Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before strengthening after 2020. There is evidence that this time variation is related to the pace of price changes, as we find that the maximum impact of money growth on inflation is increasing in the trend level of inflation. These results caution against asserting a simple, time-invariant relationship when modeling the joint dynamics of monetary aggregates and consumer prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2023. Vol. 70, no 5, p. 479-496
Keywords [en]
Bayesian VAR, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-108409DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12364ISI: 001060899800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85170400468OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-108409DiVA, id: diva2:1800532
Available from: 2023-09-27 Created: 2023-09-27 Last updated: 2023-11-16Bibliographically approved

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Karlsson, SuneÖsterholm, Pär

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