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Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Ohio, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0532-4568
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
Monash University, Clayton, Australia.
2024 (English)In: Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England), ISSN 0883-7252, E-ISSN 1099-1255, Vol. 39, no 5, p. 790-812Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Quantile regression methods are increasingly used to forecast tail risks and uncertainties in macroeconomic outcomes. This paper reconsiders how to construct predictive densities from quantile regressions. We compare a popular two-step approach that fits a specific parametric density to the quantile forecasts with a nonparametric alternative that lets the “data speak.” Simulation evidence and an application revisiting GDP growth uncertainties in the United States demonstrate the flexibility of the nonparametric approach when constructing density forecasts from both frequentist and Bayesian quantile regressions. They identify its ability to unmask deviations from symmetrical and unimodal densities. The dominant macroeconomic narrative becomes one of the evolution, over the business cycle, of multimodalities rather than asymmetries in the predictive distribution of GDP growth when conditioned on financial conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2024. Vol. 39, no 5, p. 790-812
Keywords [en]
density forecasts, financial conditions, quantile regressions
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-113274DOI: 10.1002/jae.3049ISI: 001204867800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85190967706OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-113274DiVA, id: diva2:1852723
Available from: 2024-04-19 Created: 2024-04-19 Last updated: 2024-11-20Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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