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Economic implications of the Doha round
Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0149-9598
2006 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this study the key elements of the WTO Doha round are simulated and the main implications for international trade and national income are analysed. Based on negotiation positions at the recent Hong Kong ministerial conference, a number of Doha scenarios are carefully designed and implemented. All scenarios encompass goods, services and agricultural liberalisation as well as trade facilitation. For goods liberalisation, a so-called Swiss formula with two coefficients is used to cut bound tariff rates. Agricultural tariffs are cut according to a tiered linear formula with four bands. Considerable attention has been given to the modelling of trade facilitation. Indirect as well as direct trade transaction costs are modelled, using detailed cross-country data. For simulation of the services liberalisation we use quantitative estimates of the indirect trade barriers for each region and sector. The simulation results show that all regions in the aggregation gain in the simulated Doha scenarios, with a particularly strong result for developing countries. In this respect, the Doha round can be called a development round. A conservative estimate is that global income increases with 0.2-0.7 percent of initial GDP per year, depending on the level of liberalisation. Trade facilitation contributes the most to these results, with increased market access for non-agricultural goods coming in second place. However, services reforms contribute the least, as small real market openings are expected. Overall, simulations indicate the importance of countries’ own liberalisation for their national income gains. Therefore, a “round for free” does not seem to be a valid concept. Furthermore, the importance of a broad-based round is underlined. Excluding some elements of liberalisation from the round may turn potential gains into losses, for some countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006.
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-20561OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-20561DiVA, id: diva2:464407
Conference
9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, June 15 - 17, 2006
Available from: 2011-12-13 Created: 2011-12-13 Last updated: 2017-10-17Bibliographically approved

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https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/2756.pdf

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Lodefalk, Magnus

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf