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The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2012 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 42, no 1, 79-94 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey in question is conducted by Prospera once every quarter andconsists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisations. The article shows that inflation expectations measured in this survey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Moreover, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outperformed by a simple autoregressive model. Given that the true inflation expectations are captured by the survey, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Physica Verlag, 2012. Vol. 42, no 1, 79-94 p.
Keyword [en]
Survey data, Inflation targeting
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-58334DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0428-xISI: 000299057800004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84855592355OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-58334DiVA: diva2:1116732
Available from: 2017-06-27 Created: 2017-06-27 Last updated: 2017-10-18Bibliographically approved

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Österholm, Pär

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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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