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The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?
Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2010 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, no 3, 779-792 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the twomodels is established formany countries, but the results aremixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Physica Verlag, 2010. Vol. 38, no 3, 779-792 p.
Keyword [en]
Unit root; Persistence; Labour market
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61070DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0290-xISI: 000275753600014Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-77951205941OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61070DiVA: diva2:1141783
Available from: 2017-09-15 Created: 2017-09-15 Last updated: 2017-09-22Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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