oru.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model
International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2010 (English)In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 33, no 12, p. 1788-1810Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surrounding macroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variance decomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most important factors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 per cent of the variance in Colombian GDP growth respectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used to analyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we show that the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growth would be non-negligible but that the decline still would be mild by historical standards.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wiley-Blackwell, 2010. Vol. 33, no 12, p. 1788-1810
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61615DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01288.xISI: 000285764700006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-82455250199OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61615DiVA, id: diva2:1150099
Available from: 2017-10-17 Created: 2017-10-17 Last updated: 2017-10-19Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records BETA

Österholm, Pär

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Österholm, Pär
In the same journal
The World Economy
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 25 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf