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Effects of US Policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2016 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 50, no 2, p. 443-462Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty—measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (Measuring economic policy uncertainty, 2013)—on Swedish GDP growth.Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis to quarterly data from 1988 to 2013. Results show that increasing US policy uncertainty has significant negative effects on Swedish GDP growth. The effect seems to primarily stem from effects on investment growth and export growth. Our findings should prove useful to those who analyse and forecast the Swedish economy and potentially also other similar small open economies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2016. Vol. 50, no 2, p. 443-462
Keyword [en]
Spillovers, Small open economy, Political uncertainty index, Bayesian VAR, Spectral analysis
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61616DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0934-yISI: 000370042700009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84957434155OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61616DiVA, id: diva2:1150100
Available from: 2017-10-17 Created: 2017-10-17 Last updated: 2017-10-19Bibliographically approved

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Österholm, Pär

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  • asciidoc
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