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The Long-Run Relationship between Stock Prices and GDP in Sweden
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2016 (English)In: Economic notes - Monte dei Paschi di Siena, ISSN 0391-5026, E-ISSN 1468-0300, Vol. 45, no 2, 283-297 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we investigate the long-run relationship between stock prices and GDP in Sweden. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2015, our empirical analysis suggests that the two variables are cointegrated and, hence, that there exists a  long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In light of this long-run relationship, we estimate a vector error correction model. The estimated model outperforms a simple, but highly relevant, alternative method in an out-of-sample forecast exercise. It also provides information as to whether Swedish stocks are correctly valued. Results indicate that stocks in Sweden might be overvalued at the end of the sample and forecasts from the model suggest that the disequilibrium will generate a modest development in the stock market over a number of quarters.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wiley-Blackwell, 2016. Vol. 45, no 2, 283-297 p.
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61617DOI: 10.1111/ecno.12057ISI: 000378416000006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84960193400OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61617DiVA: diva2:1150101
Available from: 2017-10-17 Created: 2017-10-17 Last updated: 2017-10-19Bibliographically approved

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Österholm, Pär

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  • asciidoc
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