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Do Swedish Consumer Confidence Indicators Do What They Are Intended to Do?
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2015 (English)In: Applied Economics Quarterly, ISSN 1611-6607, Vol. 61, no 4, 391-404 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we investigate whether the two main consumer confidence indicators available for Sweden – that of the National Institute of Economic Research and that of the European Commission – can nowcast Swedish household consumption expenditure. In a simulated out-of-sample nowcast exercise, we find that the consumer confidence indicator of the National Institute of Economic Research appears most useful for this purpose. The root mean square error of the nowcast from the model employing this indicator is the lowest of all models relying on survey data. The nowcasting performance of the model using the consumer confidence indicator of the European Commission is less impressive; while it outperforms the simplest possible benchmark model, its root mean square error is considerably higher than that of the model relying on the consumer confidence indicator of the National Institute of Economic Research. An implication of our findings is that while the European Commission’s survey programme may have been successful in creating a set of harmonised data for the member countries of the European Union, it is not obvious that the harmonised indicators are the most relevant ones for analysis, nowcasting or forecasting in each country.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin: Dunker & Humblot , 2015. Vol. 61, no 4, 391-404 p.
Keyword [en]
Household consumption, Nowcasting
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-61622DOI: 10.3790/aeq.61.4.391OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-61622DiVA: diva2:1150107
Available from: 2017-10-17 Created: 2017-10-17 Last updated: 2017-10-19Bibliographically approved

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Österholm, Pär

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