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Households’ mortgage-rate expectations – more realistic than at first glance?
Department of Economics and the Centre for Finance, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2017 (English)In: Penning- och valutapolitik, E-ISSN 2000-978X, no 2, p. 56-63Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Household expectations of future mortgage rates elicited over the last few years might appear unrealistically low. However, taking explicit account of the high persistence in interest rates, we find that Swedish households’ implied longterm expectation of mortgage rates is around 4.7 per cent. This number lines up well with the long-term expectation that can be deduced from the Riksbank’s assessment of the repo rate in the long run and the typical spread between the mortgage rate and the repo rate. Our analysis makes use of household mortgage-rate expectations at three different horizons, which enables an explicit modelling of the ‘term-structure’ of household forecasts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Sveriges riksbank , 2017. no 2, p. 56-63
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-62695OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-62695DiVA, id: diva2:1158295
Available from: 2017-11-19 Created: 2017-11-19 Last updated: 2017-11-22Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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