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Modelling stochastic behaviour in simulation digital twins through neural nets
Örebro University, School of Science and Technology. (Mechanical Engineering, Digitalized product and production development)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5698-6740
Örebro University, School of Science and Technology. (Mechanical Engineering, Digitalized product and production development)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2014-1308
Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK. (Resilience Engineering Research Group, The University of Nottinham)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2316-3959
2022 (English)In: Journal of Simulation, ISSN 1747-7778, E-ISSN 1747-7786, Vol. 16, no 5, p. 512-525Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In discrete event simulation (DES) models, stochastic behaviour is modelled by sampling random variates from probability distributions to determine event outcomes. However, the distribution of outcomes for an event from a real system is often dynamic and dependent on the current system state. This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in DES models to determine the current distribution of each event outcome, conditional on the current model state or input data, from which random variates can then be sampled. This enables more realistic and accurate modelling of stochastic behaviour. An application is in digital twin models that aim to closely mimic a real system by learning from its past behaviour and utilising current data to predict its future. The benefits of the approach introduced in this paper are demonstrated through a realistic DES model of load-haul-dump vehicle operations in a production area of a sublevel caving mine.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2022. Vol. 16, no 5, p. 512-525
Keywords [en]
discrete event simulation, mixture density network, digital twin, artificial neural network, industry 4.0
National Category
Reliability and Maintenance
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-88973DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1874844ISI: 000612099400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85099812087OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-88973DiVA, id: diva2:1522887
Projects
A digital twin to support sustainable and available production as a service, Produktion2030, SwedenProduction Centred Maintenance (PCM) for real time predictive maintenance decision support to maximise production efficiency, The Knowledge Foundation, Sweden
Funder
VinnovaAvailable from: 2021-01-27 Created: 2021-01-27 Last updated: 2022-09-12Bibliographically approved

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Reed, SeanLöfstrand, Magnus

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