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Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0203-4688
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1395-9427
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0682-8584
2021 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed and heavy tailed. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by extending a vector autoregression (VAR) model to account for a more realistic assumption of the multivariate distribution of the macroeconomic variables. We propose a general class of generalized hyperbolic skew Student’stdistribution with stochastic volatility for the error term in the VAR model that allows us to take into account skewness and heavy tails. Tools for Bayesian inference and model selection using a Gibbs sampler are provided. In an empirical study, we present evidence of skewness and heavy tails for monthly macroeconomic variables. The analysis also gives a clear message that skewness should be taken into account for better predictions during recessions and crises.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro University, School of Business , 2021. , p. 37
Series
Working Papers, School of Business, ISSN 1403-0586 ; 8
Keywords [en]
Vector autoregression, Skewness and heavy tails, Generalized hyperbolic skew Student’s t distribution, Stochastic volatility, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Economics
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-91993OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-91993DiVA, id: diva2:1557765
Available from: 2021-05-27 Created: 2021-05-27 Last updated: 2022-10-27Bibliographically approved

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Karlsson, SuneMazur, StepanNguyen, Hoang

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
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