To Örebro University

BACKGROUND: China is the world's largest tobacco consumer. Smoking initiation dramatically increases from teenage to adulthood. In this study, we investigated adolescents' future smoking intention at critical ages and its associated predictors.

METHODS: Using a longitudinal design (3 waves) across 6 months in 2016, data from 156 10th graders in two high schools in China were examined. We used latent class growth modelling to explore the heterogeneous trajectories of smoking intentions for two future age groups. Logistic regression was then used to estimate the predictors of trajectories.

RESULTS: Two trajectories and three trajectories were identified for future smoking intention in their twenties and forties, respectively. Gender, current smoking status, and mothers' and friends' smoking status all played distinct roles in future smoking intentions.

CONCLUSIONS: Chinese adolescents' future intentions at critical ages are of concern. Future tobacco control should target the critical ages as well as incorporate social and cultural meanings of smoking in China. As important factors related to future smoking trajectories, gender and mothers' smoking status should also be considered in anti-smoking prevention efforts. Meanings associated with smoking status in the future should also be explored especially for female adolescents.