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Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices-You're the One for Me, Fat Tails
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8124-328x
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Division of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0682-8584
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2021 (English)In: Journal of Risk and Financial Management, E-ISSN 1911-8074, Vol. 14, no 11, article id 506Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we analysed the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigated the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data from January 1954 to September 2019, the properties of the models were assessed both within- and out-of-sample. We found strong evidence in favour of modelling both GARCH effects and non-Gaussianity. Accounting for these properties improves within-sample performance as well as point and density forecasts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI , 2021. Vol. 14, no 11, article id 506
Keywords [en]
non-Gaussianity, GARCH, probability integral transform, Kullback-Leibler information criterion
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-95805DOI: 10.3390/jrfm14110506ISI: 000725239800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85165768712OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-95805DiVA, id: diva2:1618482
Funder
The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation, Bv18-0018 P18-0201 W19-0021Available from: 2021-12-09 Created: 2021-12-09 Last updated: 2024-06-18Bibliographically approved

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Kiss, TamásNguyen, HoangÖsterholm, Pär

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