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Can households predict where the macroeconomy is headed?
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9024-3054
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2021 (English)In: Penning- och valutapolitik, E-ISSN 2000-978X, no 2, p. 5-17Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Survey data of households’ expectations of macroeconomic variables might provide useful information to those who analyse or forecast the economy. In this article, we evaluate whether households can predict in which direction inflation and the unemployment rate will move over the coming year. The analysis is conducted using monthly Swedish data from the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey over the period from January 1996 until August 2019. Our results indicate that households can forecast in what direction the unemployment rate is headed, but they fail to predict the direction of future inflation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sveriges riksbank , 2021. no 2, p. 5-17
National Category
Economics
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URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-96159OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-96159DiVA, id: diva2:1623275
Available from: 2021-12-28 Created: 2021-12-28 Last updated: 2022-01-04Bibliographically approved

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Kladivko, KamilÖsterholm, Pär

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