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Computationally efficient inference in large Bayesian mixed frequency VARs
University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland; conomic Statistics Centre of Excellence, London, England.
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland; conomic Statistics Centre of Excellence, London, England.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
2020 (English)In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 191, article id 109120Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Mixed frequency Vector Autoregressions (MF-VARs) can be used to provide timely and high frequency estimates or nowcasts of variables for which data is available at a low frequency. Bayesian methods are commonly used with MF-VARs to overcome over-parameterization concerns. But Bayesian methods typically rely on computationally demanding Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In this paper, we develop Variational Bayes (VB) methods for use with MF-VARs using Dirichlet-Laplace global-local shrinkage priors. We show that these methods are accurate and computationally much more efficient than MCMC in two empirical applications involving large MF-VARs. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2020. Vol. 191, article id 109120
Keywords [en]
Mixed frequency, Variational inference, Vector autoregression, Stochastic volatility, Hierarchical prior, Forecasting
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-96363DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109120ISI: 000532668900017Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85082701894OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-96363DiVA, id: diva2:1626311
Note

Funding agency:

Office of National Statistics (ONS) as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)

Available from: 2022-01-11 Created: 2022-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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