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On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations
Centre of Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway; University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Canberra, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3264-0016
Centre of Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway; University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Canberra, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
2019 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 59, no 6, p. 2613-2637Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

What proportion of Australian business cycle fluctuations are caused by international shocks? We address this question by estimating a panel VAR model that has time-varying parameters and a common stochastic volatility factor. The time-varying parameters capture the inter-temporal nature of Australia's various bilateral trade relationships, while the common stochastic volatility factor captures various episodes of volatility clustering among macroeconomic shocks, e.g., the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis. Our main result is that international shocks from Australia's five largest trading partners: China, Japan, the EU, the USA and the Republic of Korea, have caused around half of all Australian business cycle fluctuations over the past two decades. We also find important changes in the relative importance of each country's economic impact. For instance, China's positive contribution increased throughout the mining boom of the 2000s, while the overall US influence has almost halved since the 1990s.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2019. Vol. 59, no 6, p. 2613-2637
Keywords [en]
Australian economy, Business cycles, Panel VAR, Stochastic volatility
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-96366DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01752-yISI: 000596592400002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85070285320OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-96366DiVA, id: diva2:1626315
Available from: 2022-01-11 Created: 2022-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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  • de-DE
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  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
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Output format
  • html
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