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Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth Using Bayesian Quantile Regression
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
2022 (English)In: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, Emerald Group Publishing Limited , 2022, Vol. 43A, p. 51-72Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This chapter uses an application to explore the utility of Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) methods in producing density nowcasts. Our quantile regression modeling strategy is designed to reflect important nowcasting features, namely the use of mixed-frequency data, the ragged-edge, and large numbers of indicators (big data). An unrestricted mixed data sampling strategy within a BQR is used to accommodate a large mixed-frequency data set when nowcasting; the authors consider various shrinkage priors to avoid parameter proliferation. In an application to euro area GDP growth, using over 100 mixed-frequency indicators, the authors find that the quantile regression approach produces accurate density nowcasts including over recessionary periods when global-local shrinkage priors are used.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald Group Publishing Limited , 2022. Vol. 43A, p. 51-72
Series
Advances in Econometrics, ISSN 0731-9053 ; Vol. 43A
Keywords [en]
Quantile regression, Bayesian methods, Nowcasting, Big data, Mixed-frequency data, Density forecasting
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-96367DOI: 10.1108/s0731-90532021000043a004ISBN: 9781802620627 (print)ISBN: 9781802620610 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-96367DiVA, id: diva2:1626316
Available from: 2022-01-11 Created: 2022-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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Citation style
  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
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Output format
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