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RECONCILED ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT IN THE UK
University of Strathclyde, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Glasgow Lanark, Scotland.
University of Strathclyde, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Glasgow Lanark, Scotland.
Warwick Business School, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Warwick, England.
University of Strathclyde, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Glasgow Lanark, Scotland.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
2020 (English)In: National Institute Economic Review, ISSN 0027-9501, E-ISSN 1741-3036, Vol. 253, p. R44-R59Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has led to more investment in economic statistics. Specifically, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently started to produce quarterly regional GDP data for the nine English regions and Wales that date back to 2012Q1. This complements existing real GVA data for the regions available from the ONS on an annual basis back to 1998; with the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland producing their own quarterly output measures. In this paper we reconcile these two data sources along with UK quarterly output data that date back to 1970. This enables us to produce both more timely real terms estimates of quarterly economic growth in the regions of the UK and a new reconciled historical time-series of quarterly regional real output data from 1970. We explore a number of features of interest of these new data. This includes producing a new quarterly regional productivity series and commenting on the evolution of regional productivity growth in the UK.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press , 2020. Vol. 253, p. R44-R59
Keywords [en]
Bayesian methods, Mixed frequency, Regional nowcasting, Vector auto-regressions, regional productivity, regional economics
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-96368DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.29ISI: 000553044300008Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85089365331OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-96368DiVA, id: diva2:1626317
Note

Funding agency:

ONS as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)

Available from: 2022-01-11 Created: 2022-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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