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Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables
Australian National University, Research School of Economics, Acton ACT, Australia.
Australian National University, Research School of Economics, Acton ACT, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
2016 (English)In: Economic Modelling, ISSN 0264-9993, E-ISSN 1873-6122, Vol. 58, p. 34-51Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis has re-stimulated interest in modeling structural changes and fat tail events. In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating time variation and fat-tails into a suit of popular univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributed models can improve the forecast performance of key Australian macroeconomic variables: real GDP growth, CPI inflation and a short-term interest rate. The forecast period is from 1992Q1 to 2014Q4, thus replicating the central banks forecasting responsibilities since adopting inflation targeting. We show that time varying parameters and stochastic volatility with Student's-t error distribution are important modeling features of the data. More specifically, a vector autoregression with the proposed features provides the best interest and inflation forecasts over the entire sample. Remarkably, the full sample results show that a simple rolling window autoregressive model with Student's-t errors provides the most accurate GDP forecasts. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016. Vol. 58, p. 34-51
Keywords [en]
Bayesian econometrics, Inflation forecasts, State space models, Stochastic volatility, Student's-t errors, Time varying parameters
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-96370DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.04.021ISI: 000382593000004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84971294684OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-96370DiVA, id: diva2:1626319
Available from: 2022-01-11 Created: 2022-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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