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Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, USA.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2587-8779
2023 (English)In: Journal of business & economic statistics, ISSN 0735-0015, E-ISSN 1537-2707, Vol. 41, no 2, p. 563-577Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the US, income and expenditure-side estimates of GDP (GDPI and GDPE) measure “true” GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDPE, GDPI, unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. Our MF-VAR imposes restrictions that reflect a measurement-error perspective (that is, the two GDP proxies are assumed to equal true GDP plus measurement error). Without further restrictions, our model is unidentified. We consider a range of restrictions that allow for point and set identification of true GDP and show that they lead to informative monthly GDP estimates. We illustrate how these new monthly data contribute to our historical understanding of business cycles and we provide a real-time application nowcasting monthly GDP over the pandemic recession.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2023. Vol. 41, no 2, p. 563-577
Keywords [en]
Mixed frequency, Vector autoregressions, Bayesian methods, Nowcasting, Business cycles, National accounts
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-97637DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2044336ISI: 000771280600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85126730866OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-97637DiVA, id: diva2:1639911
Available from: 2022-02-22 Created: 2022-02-22 Last updated: 2023-12-08Bibliographically approved

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Poon, Aubrey

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf