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Forest Area, CO2 Emission, and COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rate: A Worldwide Ecological Study Using Spatial Regression Analysis
Institute of Sports Science, College of Physical Education, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
Institute of Sports Science, College of Physical Education, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4090-9123
Örebro University, School of Medical Sciences. Örebro University Hospital. Unit of Integrative Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. (Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3552-9153
2022 (English)In: Forests, E-ISSN 1999-4907, Vol. 13, no 5, article id 736Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Spatial analysis is essential to understand the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to numerous factors of multi-disciplines involved, the current pandemic is yet fully known. Hence, the current study aimed to expand the knowledge on the pandemic by exploring the roles of forests and CO2 emission in the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) at the global level. Data were captured on the forest coverage rate and CO2 emission per capita from 237 countries. Meanwhile, extra demographic and socioeconomic variables were also included to adjust for potential confounding. Associations between the forest coverage rate and CO2 emission per capita and the COVID-19 CFR were assessed using spatial regression analysis, and the results were further stratified by country income levels. Although no distinct association between the COVID-19 CFR and forest coverage rate or CO2 emission per capita was found worldwide, we found that a 10% increase in forest coverage rates was associated with a 2.37 parts per thousand (95%CI: 3.12, 1.62) decrease in COVID-19 CFRs in low-income countries; and a 10% increase in CO2 emission per capita was associated with a 0.94 parts per thousand (95%CI: 1.46, 0.42) decrease in COVID-19 CFRs in low-middle-income countries. Since a strong correlation was observed between the CO2 emission per capita and GDP per capita (r = 0.89), we replaced CO2 emission with GDP and obtained similar results. Our findings suggest a higher forest coverage may be a protective factor in low-income countries, which may be related to their low urbanization levels and high forest accessibilities. On the other hand, CO2 can be a surrogate of GDP, which may be a critical factor likely to decrease the COVID-19 CFR in lower-middle-income countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI , 2022. Vol. 13, no 5, article id 736
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, forest, CO2, fatality, death, mortality, health, nature
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-99583DOI: 10.3390/f13050736ISI: 000803251200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85130292623OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-99583DiVA, id: diva2:1670133
Available from: 2022-06-15 Created: 2022-06-15 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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