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Redefining Standard Measurement Uncertainty
National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg MD, USA; Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden .
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg MD, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1359-3311
2022 (English)In: Ukrainian Metrological Journal, ISSN 2306-7039, no 1, p. 34-37Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) defines standard measurement uncertainty as the standard deviation of a probability distribution that describes the uncertainty associated with an estimate of the measurand, and defines expanded uncertainty as a multiple of the standard uncertainty. Monte Carlo methods can produce the expanded uncertainty for 95% coverage as one half of the length of the interval whose endpoints are the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the probability distribution of the estimate of the measurand (when this distribution is approximately symmetrical). This creates an opportunity for a paradox to arise: that the standard uncertainty, defined as a standard deviation, can be larger than the expanded uncertainty. We provide an example involving real measurement data where this paradox arises with high probability, and then offer a new definition of standard uncertainty that agrees numerically with the conventional definition in "normal" cases, but that is still reliable in "abnormal" cases.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
National Scientific Centre "Institute of Metrology" , 2022. no 1, p. 34-37
Keywords [en]
expanded uncertainty, percentiles, paradox, coverage factor, normal distribution, Dolos distribution
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-100150DOI: 10.24027/2306-7039.1.2022.258815ISI: 000813970500005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-100150DiVA, id: diva2:1684794
Available from: 2022-07-28 Created: 2022-07-28 Last updated: 2022-07-28Bibliographically approved

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Bodnar, Olha

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