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The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2
Örebro University, School of Science and Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6098-721X
Center for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Örebro University, School of Science and Technology. Hellenic Mediterranean University, Heraklion, Greece.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2630-7479
Centrum för forskning och utveckling (CFUG) Region, Gävleborg, Sweden.
2022 (English)In: Infectious Disease Modelling, ISSN 2468-0427, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 778-794Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic models (Diekmann et al., 2012). However, such conclusions are derived under idealized assumptions such as the population size tending to infinity, and the individual degree of infectivity only depending on variations in the infectiousness period. In this paper we show that the same conclusions hold true in a finite population representing a medium size city, where the degree of infectivity is determined by the offspring distribution, which we try to make as realistic as possible for SARS-CoV-2. In particular, we consider distributions with fat tails, to incorporate the existence of super-spreaders. We also provide new theoretical results on convergence of stochastic models which allows to incorporate any offspring distribution with a finite moment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
KeAi Publishing Communications Ltd. , 2022. Vol. 7, no 4, p. 778-794
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, SEIR, SIR, compartmental models, offspring distribution for SARS-CoV-2
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-101897DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.003ISI: 000889705200001PubMedID: 36267691Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85142435236OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-101897DiVA, id: diva2:1705482
Funder
Carl Tryggers foundation Available from: 2022-10-24 Created: 2022-10-24 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved

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Rousse, FrançoisÖgren, Magnus

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