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Market participants or the random walk-who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8124-328x
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9024-3054
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. National Institute of Economic Research, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2023 (English)In: Finance Research Letters, ISSN 1544-6123, E-ISSN 1544-6131, Vol. 54, article id 103752Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the precision of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed -income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the five-year government bond yield, none of the market participants that frequently participate in the survey manage to significantly outperform the random-walk forecast. For the central bank's policy rate, the market participants typically have a statistically significant higher forecast pre-cision than the random-walk forecast at the three-month horizon; however, at the two-and five-year horizons, the random-walk forecast typically outperforms the market participants.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023. Vol. 54, article id 103752
Keywords [en]
Out-of-sample forecasts, Exchange rates, Interest rates
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-106189DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103752ISI: 000983646900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85150050181OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-106189DiVA, id: diva2:1763487
Available from: 2023-06-07 Created: 2023-06-07 Last updated: 2023-06-07Bibliographically approved

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Kiss, TamásKladivko, KamilSilfverberg, OliwerÖsterholm, Pär

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