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The evolution of the natural rate of interest: evidence from the Scandinavian countries
Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Statistics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden; School of Economics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4840-7649
2024 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 66, p. 1633-1659Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden is estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85:1063-1070, 2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators--a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle fluctuations. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods on data ranging from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. The results indicate that the natural rate has declined substantially and in all countries is at a low level at the end of the sample.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2024. Vol. 66, p. 1633-1659
Keywords [en]
Monetary policy, Business cycle, Bayesian filter, Dynamic factor model, E31, E43, E52
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-110139DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02503-wISI: 001099982000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85176127536OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-110139DiVA, id: diva2:1818697
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Örebro UniversityAvailable from: 2023-12-12 Created: 2023-12-12 Last updated: 2024-06-17Bibliographically approved

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