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The strategic jump-the order effect on winning "The Final Three" in long jump competitions
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0445-5403
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1746-7884
2024 (English)In: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, ISSN 2194-6388, E-ISSN 1559-0410, Vol. 20, no 3, p. 265-276Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The tournament rules for long jump competitions have changed in recent years. Today, only the three athletes with the best jumps from the five initial attempts are qualified to make an additional sixth jump - a format called The Final Three. In the first implemented version of The Final Three, the top athletes sequentially make one final jump, starting with the athlete ranked third place from the initial attempts. The athlete with the longest jump in this sixth attempt wins the competition, irrespective of achieved results in previous attempts. In this study, we analyze the effect of the athletes' jump order on the probability of winning the competition within this first implemented version of The Final Three. We derive the final's symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium and compute the corresponding equilibrium winning probabilities, given estimated distributional parameters from the Olympic long jumping final in Tokyo 2021. The modeling of the game is preceded by a development of a stochastic model for the outcome in long jumping. Our results indicate a last mover advantage, albeit small. Our model also reveals the importance of having a low variation in the approach run length and thinking strategically in this tournament format.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Walter de Gruyter, 2024. Vol. 20, no 3, p. 265-276
Keywords [en]
long jumping, sequential game, order effect
National Category
Economics Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-112151DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0028ISI: 001165592000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85185811382OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-112151DiVA, id: diva2:1843593
Available from: 2024-03-11 Created: 2024-03-11 Last updated: 2024-06-17Bibliographically approved

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Karlsson, NiklasLunander, Anders

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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