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Modeling fighter aircraft mission survivability
Örebro University, School of Science and Technology.
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2011), New York: IEEE conference proceedings, 2011, p. 999-1006Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A fighter aircraft flying a mission is often exposed to ground-based threats such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites.The fighter pilot needs to take actions to minimize the risk of being shot down, but at the same time be able to accomplish the mission. In this paper we propose a survivability model, which describes the probability that the aircraft will be able to fly a given route without being hit by incoming missiles. Input to this model can consist of sensor measurements collected during flight as well as intelligence data gathered before the mission.This input is by nature uncertain and we therefore investigate the influence of uncertainty in the input to the model. Finally we propose a number of decision support functions that can be developed based on the suggested model such as countermeasure management, mission planning and sensor management

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: IEEE conference proceedings, 2011. p. 999-1006
Keywords [en]
Survivability, fighter aircraft, decision support, threat model
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-20538ISBN: 978-1-4577-0267-9 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-20538DiVA, id: diva2:463863
Conference
14th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2011), 5-8 July, Chicago
Note

This research has been supported by the Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (Vinnova) through the National Aviation Engineering Research Program (NFFP5- 2009-01315), Saab AB and the University of Skovde.

Available from: 2011-12-12 Created: 2011-12-12 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Situation analysis for fighter aircraft combat survivability
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Situation analysis for fighter aircraft combat survivability
2011 (English)Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Fighter pilots operate in environments where an erroneous decision may have fatal consequences. A tactical decision support system (TDSS) could aid the pilots to analyze the situation and make correct decisions. The TDSS can, for instance, highlight important information and suggest suitable actions. The aim of this thesis is to provide a situation analysis model of combat survival that can be utilized in a TDSS.

The first part of this thesis describes an analysis of what the model needs to describe and how it can be used. It is concluded that the model should evaluate the outcome of different actions with respect to combat survival. This evaluation can guide the pilot’s decision making, so that actions leading to dangerous situations are avoided. The analysis also highlights the need of handling uncertainties, both measurement precision uncertainty regarding the locations and capabilities of the threats (enemies) and inference uncertainties regarding the prediction of how the threats will act.

Finally, arguments for focusing the rest of the work on a single fighter aircraft and threats located on the ground are presented. The second part of the thesis suggests a model, which describes the survivability, i.e., the probability that the aircraft can fly a route without being hit by fire from ground-based threats. Thus, the model represents the inference uncertainty, since it describes the probability of survival. The model’s characteristics are discussed, e.g., that the model is implementable and can be adapted to describe different kinds of ground-based threats. Uncertainty in terms of measurement precision influences the estimate of the survivability. Two different ways of representing this is discussed: calculating the worst case scenario or describing the input as random variables and the resulting survivability as a random variable with a probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulations are used for estimating the distribution for survivability in a few illustrative scenarios, where the input is represented as random variables. The simulations show that when the uncertainty in input is large, the survivability distribution may be both multimodal and mixed. Two uncertainty measures are investigated that condense the information in the distributions into a single value: standard deviation and entropy. The simulations show that both of these measures reflect the uncertainty. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that the uncertainty measures can be used for sensor management, since they point out which information that is the most valuable to gather in order to decrease the uncertainty in the survivability.

Finally, directions for future work are suggested. A number of TDSS functions that can be developed based on the model are discussed e.g., warnings, countermeasure management, route-planning and sensor management. The design of these functions could require extending the threat model to incorporate airborne threats and the effects of countermeasures. Further investigations regarding the uncertainty in the model are also suggested.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro universitet, 2011. p. 144
Series
Studies from the School of Science and Technology at Örebro University ; 23
Keywords
fighter aircraft, situation analysis, combat survival, decision support, uncertainty
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-20544 (URN)
Supervisors
Available from: 2011-12-12 Created: 2011-12-12 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
2. A combat survivability model for evaluating air mission routes in future decision support systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A combat survivability model for evaluating air mission routes in future decision support systems
2014 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro universitet, 2014. p. 220
Series
Örebro Studies in Technology, ISSN 1650-8580
National Category
Information Systems Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Information technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-33208 (URN)978-91-7529-003-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2014-03-28, Sal G111 Högskolan i Skövde, Högskolevägen 1, 541 28 Skövde, 13:15 (Swedish)
Opponent
Available from: 2014-01-22 Created: 2014-01-22 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved

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