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Estimating traffic demand risk: a multiscale analysis
Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. (Nationalekonomi)
2012 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 10, p. 1741-1751Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950–2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Pergamon Press, 2012. Vol. 46, no 10, p. 1741-1751
Keywords [en]
Traffic demand; GDP-sensitivity; Wavelets; Risk; Social discount rate; Real options
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-25788DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.07.002ISI: 000312425200019Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84870295866OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-25788DiVA, id: diva2:551577
Available from: 2012-09-11 Created: 2012-09-11 Last updated: 2017-12-07Bibliographically approved

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Krüger, Niclas A.

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Citation style
  • apa
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  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf