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A combat survivability model for evaluating air mission routes in future decision support systems
Örebro University, School of Science and Technology.
2014 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Örebro: Örebro universitet , 2014. , p. 220
Series
Örebro Studies in Technology, ISSN 1650-8580
National Category
Information Systems Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Information technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-33208ISBN: 978-91-7529-003-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-33208DiVA, id: diva2:689886
Public defence
2014-03-28, Sal G111 Högskolan i Skövde, Högskolevägen 1, 541 28 Skövde, 13:15 (Swedish)
Opponent
Available from: 2014-01-22 Created: 2014-01-22 Last updated: 2023-01-10Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Modeling fighter aircraft mission survivability
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling fighter aircraft mission survivability
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2011), New York: IEEE conference proceedings, 2011, p. 999-1006Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A fighter aircraft flying a mission is often exposed to ground-based threats such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites.The fighter pilot needs to take actions to minimize the risk of being shot down, but at the same time be able to accomplish the mission. In this paper we propose a survivability model, which describes the probability that the aircraft will be able to fly a given route without being hit by incoming missiles. Input to this model can consist of sensor measurements collected during flight as well as intelligence data gathered before the mission.This input is by nature uncertain and we therefore investigate the influence of uncertainty in the input to the model. Finally we propose a number of decision support functions that can be developed based on the suggested model such as countermeasure management, mission planning and sensor management

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: IEEE conference proceedings, 2011
Keywords
Survivability, fighter aircraft, decision support, threat model
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-20538 (URN)2-s2.0-80052553293 (Scopus ID)9781457702679 (ISBN)
Conference
14th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2011), 5-8 July, Chicago
Note

This research has been supported by the Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (Vinnova) through the National Aviation Engineering Research Program (NFFP5- 2009-01315), Saab AB and the University of Skovde.

Available from: 2011-12-12 Created: 2011-12-12 Last updated: 2023-05-10Bibliographically approved
2. Calculating uncertainties in situation analysis for fighter aircraft combat survivability
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Calculating uncertainties in situation analysis for fighter aircraft combat survivability
2012 (English)In: 2012 15th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION), 9-12 July 2012, IEEE, 2012, p. 196-203Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2012
National Category
Human Computer Interaction
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-34573 (URN)978-0-9824438-4-2 (ISBN)
Conference
2012 15th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION), 9-12 July 2012
Available from: 2014-04-03 Created: 2014-04-03 Last updated: 2023-01-10Bibliographically approved
3. An air-to-ground combat survivability model
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An air-to-ground combat survivability model
2015 (English)In: The Journal of Defence Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, ISSN 1548-5129, E-ISSN 1557-380X, Vol. 12, no 3, p. 273-287Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A survivability model can be a useful component of a tactical support system able to aid fighter pilots to assess the risk of getting hit by enemy fire from ground-based threats. This work identifies three desirable properties of such a model: it should allow for evaluating actions; it should enable domain experts to incorporate their knowledge; and it should represent uncertainties both regarding the locations of the threats as well as their future actions. A survivability model is suggested, which calculates the probability that the aircraft can fly a route unharmed and allows for routes of different lengths to be compared. A domain expert can describe the threats by specifying the risk of getting hit at a position of the route without having to consider the earlier actions of the aircraft and the threats. Three different threat models are suggested and compared. The influence of uncertainties regarding the positions of the threats is studied by calculating the probability density function for the survivability. Different representations that take into account both the uncertainty regarding the present and future situation are discussed. The results indicate that the suggested survivability model could be a useful component of a future tactical support system, even though some further development is needed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2015
Keywords
survivability model, fighter aircraft, tactical support system, uncertainty, ground-based threats
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-34572 (URN)10.1177/1548512913484399 (DOI)2-s2.0-84942866246 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova, NFFP5-2009-01315
Available from: 2014-04-03 Created: 2014-04-03 Last updated: 2023-01-10Bibliographically approved
4. Automatic evaluation of air mission routes with respect to combat survival
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Automatic evaluation of air mission routes with respect to combat survival
2014 (English)In: Information Fusion, ISSN 1566-2535, E-ISSN 1872-6305, Vol. 20, p. 88-98Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Aircraft flying in hostile environments are exposed to ground-based air defense systems. It is not always possible to both accomplish the mission and fly outside the range of the enemy’s weapon systems, especially if the positions of the enemy’s systems are not perfectly known. Automatic evaluation of mission routes from a combat survival perspective could therefore aid the pilots to plan their missions. When updated information regarding the positions and capabilities of the enemy’s systems is received during flight, the route could be re-evaluated and the mission could be re-planed or aborted if it is assessed to be too dangerous.

The survivability model presented here describes the relation between the aircraft and the enemy’s defense systems. It calculates the probabilities that the aircraft is in certain modes along the route, e.g., undetected, tracked or hit. Contrary to previous work, the model is able to capture that the enemy’s systems can communicate and that the enemy must track the aircraft before firing a weapon. The survivability model is used to calculate an expected cost for the mission route. The expected cost has the attractive properties of summarizing the route into a single value and is able to take the pilot’s risk attitude for the mission into account. The evaluation of the route is influenced by uncertainty regarding the locations of the enemy’s sensors and weapons. Monte Carlo simulations are used to capture this uncertainty by calculating the mean and standard deviation for the expected cost. These two parameters give the pilots an assessment of the danger associated with the route as well as the reliability of this assessment. The paper concludes that evaluating routes with the survivability model and the expected cost could aid the pilots to plan and execute their missions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2014
Keywords
Survivability, Air mission route, Markov model, Fighter aircraft, Threat assessment
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-34571 (URN)10.1016/j.inffus.2013.12.001 (DOI)000337863500010 ()2-s2.0-84901591357 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova, NFFP5-2009-01315
Note

Funding agency:

Saab AB and the University of Skövde

Available from: 2014-04-03 Created: 2014-04-03 Last updated: 2023-01-10Bibliographically approved
5. Route planning for air missions in hostile environments
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Route planning for air missions in hostile environments
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-34570 (URN)
Available from: 2014-04-03 Created: 2014-04-03 Last updated: 2023-05-10Bibliographically approved
6. Threat assessment for missions in hostile territory: from the aircraft perspective
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Threat assessment for missions in hostile territory: from the aircraft perspective
2013 (English)In: 16th International Conference on Information Fusion Istanbul, Turkey, July 9-12, 2013, IEEE, 2013, p. 1856-1862Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2013
National Category
Control Engineering Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-34569 (URN)978-605-86311-1-3 (ISBN)
Conference
16th International Conference on Information Fusion Istanbul, Turkey, July 9-12, 2013
Available from: 2014-04-03 Created: 2014-04-03 Last updated: 2023-01-10Bibliographically approved

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