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  • 1.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Krüger, Niclas
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Mantalos, Panagiotis
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment2014In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 47, p. 70-81Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We modify a method recently suggested by Weitzman (2012, 2013) for determining a risk-adjusted social discount rate (SDR) term structure consistent with both the (augmented) Ramsey rule and the consumption-based CAPM. Using this approach we estimate SDR for transportation infrastructure investments based on an analysis of correlations between transportation, split between road and rail, and between passenger travel and freight transport, and GDP in Sweden 1950–2011. We show that this can be estimated from two time-series following a random walk with drift, even if the variables are not co-integrated. Based on current estimates of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium, we estimate the relevant SDR to be 5–6 per cent, possibly somewhat lower for investment in railroads for passenger travel, and only slowly declining within the investment horizon. This is higher than the current rates used in, for instance, Sweden, Germany and the UK.

  • 2.
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, VTI, Stockholm, Sweden; Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm, CTS, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Political economics or Keynesian demand-side policies: What determines transport infrastructure investment in Swedish municipalities?2015In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 51, p. 49-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines investment in transport infrastructure in Swedish municipalities according to the three National Transport Infrastructure Plans of 2004, 2010 and 2014. The plans cover 12 years each. The test of a swing voter model, combined with variables relevant to the Keynesian model of demand side policies, supports the proposition that there is less investment in municipalities with highly partisan electorates. The model seems to work better for road than for rail investments. Municipalities with a high density of voters at the ideological cut-point (middle of the ideological distribution) got more investment in the 2010 plan but not in the other plans. The impact of the elasticity of output on public service provision raised investment in road projects in sub-plan period 1 compared to later sub-plan periods. The tax elasticity of output may influence the volume of investment downward. The Plan for 2010-2021 seems to be the most politically determined of the plans considered here.

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