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  • 1.
    Abrego, Lisandro
    et al.
    International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model2010In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 33, no 12, p. 1788-1810Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surrounding macroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variance decomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most important factors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 per cent of the variance in Colombian GDP growth respectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used to analyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we show that the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growth would be non-negligible but that the decline still would be mild by historical standards.

  • 2.
    Andersson, Linda
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Karpaty, Patrik
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Savsin, Selen
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Labour Demand, Offshoring and Inshoring: Evidence from Swedish Firm-level Data2017In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 40, no 2, p. 240-274Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper was to analyse effects on firm–level relative demand for skilled labour due to imports of intermediates (offshoring) and exports of intermediates (inshoring). The study is based on a data set of Swedish manufacturing firms, 1997–2002, using trade flows in intermediate goods and services, respectively. Descriptive data show that goods inshoring is much larger than goods offshoring, while the reverse is true for services. There is, however, a strong increase in services inshoring over the study period. Controlling for potential endogeneity in offshoring and inshoring, our results indicate that there is a positive effect of services offshoring on the skill composition of workers in Swedish firms, while no such causality can be established from inshoring.

  • 3. Eliasson, Kent
    et al.
    Hansson, Pär
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Lindvert, Markus
    Jobs and exposure to international trade within the service sector in Sweden2012In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 35, no 5, p. 578-608Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To establish in which service industries there is international trade (or it may potentially exist), we calculate locational Ginis for different industries. The basic idea is that from this measure of regional concentration of different activities within a country we can identify industries where there appears to be regional trade, and hence also a potential for international trade. Based on our method, we find that: (i) the number of employed in tradable service appears to be at least as large as in the manufacturing sector, (ii) tradable service is much more skill intensive than manufacturing, and (iii) lately, the employment in tradable service has increased substantially. We argue that the last mentioned result is consistent with the substantial growth of skilled labour in Sweden since the mid-1990s (Rybczynski effect) and factors leading to increased relative demand for skilled labour. Particularly, increased competition from and offshoring to low-wage countries seem recently to have had a considerable impact on the creation of skilled jobs and the displacement of less skilled jobs in the tradable sector in Sweden. Furthermore, we apply a similar method as for industries to identify tradable occupations. Using our classification of tradable industries and tradable occupations in a Mincer type wage equation, we find that workers in such industries and occupations receive a wage premia of 1213 per cent.

  • 4.
    Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Ratio, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lodefalk, Magnus
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business. Ratio, Stockholm, Sweden; Global Labor Organization.
    Migration and Servicification: Do Immigrant Employees Spur Firm Exports of Services?2019In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 42Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Services play an increasingly important role in production, employment and international trade but are subject to substantially higher trade costs relative to manufactured goods. Knowledge of how these trade costs can be mitigated is important for facilitating trade of services. In this paper, we analyze the role of immigrant employees as facilitators of firm exports of services, a role that remains largely unexamined. We bridge the gap in existing research by drawing on new data for nearly 30,000 Swedish firms during the period 1998-2007 within a heterogeneous firm framework. The results have important policy implications. As the multilateral approach to facilitating trade is challenged and more countries are imposing measures to restrict the cross-country mobility of people, policymakers may need to find new ways to promote exports of services. Our results indicate that immigrant employees spur firms’ export of services activities: hiring one additional foreign-born worker can increase services exports by approximately 2.5 percent, on average, with a stronger effect found for skilled and newly arrived immigrants. Therefore, policymakers could leverage the findings of this study to implement initiatives that utilize high-skilled immigrants to promote services exports.

  • 5.
    Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas
    et al.
    Stockholm Chamber of Commerce and The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lodefalk, Magnus
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University. National Board of Trade, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Trade, Migration and Integration: Evidence and Policy Implications2015In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 38, no 12, p. 2013-2048Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper takes as its point of departure the unique position recently adopted by Swedish policymakers emphasizing migration as a tool to increase trade. We attempt to empirically scrutinize this position. Our results demonstrate that migrants stimulate exports, especially along the extensive product margin of trade and for differentiated products, but have no significant impact on imports. This finding suggests that for small open economies where numerous immigrants are refugees, the strategy of using migration to facilitate trade may only be effective with respect to exports. This paper also contributes to the literature on trade and migration by exploiting data on gender and age, which allow us to draw inferences on the underlying impact channels. We adopt an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity issue due to potential reverse causality. The pattern of results is consistent with the hypothesis that migration primarily reduces fixed trade costs resulting from information and trust friction across migrant host and source countries. Importantly, the results imply that policymakers may be able to promote trade by improving immigrants’ labor market integration instead of simply being restricted to promoting more liberal immigration policies, which is generally more controversial.

  • 6.
    Karlsson, Sune
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Lundin, Nannan
    Sjöholm, Fredrik
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Ping, He
    Foreign Firms and Chinese Employment2009In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 32, no 1, p. 178-201Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment in the Chinese manufacturing sector. As one of the world's largest recipients of FDI, China has arguably benefited from foreign multinational enterprises in various respects. However, one of the main challenges for China, and other developing countries, is job creation, and the effect of FDI on employment is uncertain. The effect depends on the amount of jobs created within foreign firms as well as the effect of FDI on employment in domestic firms. We analyse FDI and employment in China using a large sample of manufacturing firms for the period 1998–2004. Our results show that FDI has positive effects on employment growth. The relatively high employment growth in foreign firms is associated with their firm characteristics and their high survival rate. Employment growth is also relatively high in private domestic Chinese firms. There also seems to be a positive indirect effect of FDI on employment in private domestically-owned firms, presumably caused by spillovers.

  • 7.
    Karpaty, Patrik
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Tingvall, Patrik Gustavsson
    The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden .
    Offshoring and Home Country R&D2015In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 38, no 4, p. 655-676Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    National concerns are occasionally raised against offshoring economic activities to other countries. While most of the existing literature has focused on the effects on labour demand and productivity, the effects on domestic R&D have largely been neglected. Using Swedish firm-level data, we analyse the effects of material offshoring on the R&D intensity of domestic firms. The results suggest that the overall impact of offshoring on R&D is negative. The negative effect on home country R&D stems from offshoring by small firms from other high-income countries. Conversely, offshoring increases home country R&D among large firms. As large firms perform the bulk of Swedish R&D, the net effect of offshoring on R&D is positive.

  • 8.
    Kinnman, Susanna
    et al.
    Kommerskollegium.
    Lodefalk, Magnus
    Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics.
    What is at Stake in the Doha Round?2007In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 30, no 8, p. 1305-1325Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study the key elements of the WTO Doha Round are simulated and the main implications for international trade and national income are analysed. Based on negotiation information, three scenarios are designed. All scenarios encompass goods, services and agricultural liberalisation as well as trade facilitation. For goods liberalisation, a so-called Swiss formula is used to cut bound tariff rates. Agricultural tariffs are cut according to a tiered linear formula. Attention has been given to the modelling of trade facilitation. Indirect as well as direct trade transaction costs are modelled. For simulation of the services liberalisation quantitative estimates of indirect trade barriers are used. The simulation results show that all regions in the aggregation gain in the simulated Doha scenarios, with a particularly strong result for developing countries. A conservative estimate is that global income increases with 0.2–0.7 per cent of initial GDP, depending on the level of liberalisation. Trade facilitation contributes the most to these results, with increased market access for non-agricultural goods coming in second place. Overall, simulations indicate the importance of countries' own liberalisation for their national income gains, and the importance of a broad-based round.

  • 9.
    Lanz, Rainer
    et al.
    Development Division, World Trade Organization, Geneva, Switzerland .
    Miroudot, Sébastien
    Trade and Agriculture Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France.
    Nordås, Hildegunn Kyvik
    Trade and Agriculture Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France.
    Offshoring of Tasks: Taylorism Versus Toyotism2013In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 36, no 2, p. 194-212Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper contributes to the recent debate on trade in tasks, drawing on insights from the theory of the firm as well as recent developments in trade theory. Recent empirical literature suggests that between 20 and 30 per cent of all jobs in key OECD countries could be digitised and offshored. This study offers a cluster analysis which documents that offshorable and non-offshorable tasks tend to be performed together across occupations. Therefore, when assessing the offshorability of a job, one needs to take into account all tasks being performed by the worker and the gains from fragmenting jobs versus the benefits of multi-tasked workers (taylorism versus toyotism). Furthermore, one needs to distinguish between fragmentation of production and fragmentation of jobs.

  • 10.
    Lodefalk, Magnus
    et al.
    Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics.
    Whalley, John
    University of Western Ontario.
    Reviewing proposals for a world environmental organisation2002In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 25, no 5, p. 601-617Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the Earth Summit in Rio 1992, several calls have been made for a world environmental organisation (WEO), and only during the last year, in the run-up to Rio+10, five more have been added. In total, we have found 17 proposals for a WEO. We review, compare, and briefly discuss rationales, models, tasks, organisational set-up, relations to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and organisations such as UNEP and the WTO, as well as the role of principles, compliance and the interest of developing countries. We conclude that a majority of proposers is in favour of an autonomous coordinating agency, that is, a medium level of integration. Frequently the WTO is mentioned as a precursor agency on which a WEO should be based. We question the effectiveness of a 'WTO for the environment' and suggest that other models ought to be considered.

  • 11.
    Nordås, Hildegunn Kyvik
    et al.
    OECD, Paris, France.
    Rouzet, Dorothée
    OECD, Paris, France.
    The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows2017In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 40, no 6, p. 1155-1183Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper uses recent OECD data on services trade restrictions (STRI) to analyse the relationship between services trade policies and cross-border trade in services. A standard gravity model is enhanced by the STRI indices in a cross-section regression analysis. Services trade restrictions are negatively associated with both imports and exports of services. The surprisingly strong effect on services exports is probably explained by a negative relationship between the STRIs and sector performance indicators. Consequently, services suppliers from less open countries are less competitive abroad. Bilateral differences in regulation are also found to curtail services trade over and above the impact of the trade liberalisation level. At the margin, regulatory differences have a larger effect on trade flows the lower the level of the STRI.

  • 12.
    Sjöholm, Fredrik
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University. Res Inst Ind Econ, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lundin, Nannan
    E3G & Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden.
    The role of small firms in the technology development of China2010In: The World Economy, ISSN 0378-5920, E-ISSN 1467-9701, Vol. 33, no 9, p. 1117-1139Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Science & Technology (S&T) is high on the Chinese policy agenda and the country aims at becoming an innovation-driven economy. Small firms have been important in technology development in other East Asian countries but the situation in Chinese small firms has been far less explored. We examine how much S&T has been accounted for by small firms and how their S&T intensity differs across industries and ownership groups. We also analyse how various firm characteristics differ over size categories and S&T status. This study is based on newly processed micro-level data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics with information on a large number of S&T indicators for manufacturing firms in China in 2000 and 2004. Our results suggest that the role of small firms in Chinese S&T is similar to that in many other countries. They account for a comparably small share of total S&T and most small firms are not engaged in any S&T. However, those small firms that do engage in S&T tend to be more S&T intensive and have a higher output in terms of patents than larger Chinese S&T firms.

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