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  • 1.
    Josefsson, Niklas
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Brandel, Martin
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Bringhed, Kristoffer
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Ett företags framtid: En anpassning av Altmans Z'-Scoremodell i Sverige2012Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    During the year of 2011, 6 045 Swedish firms filed for bankruptcy. Also, in 2009 the Swedish bank, SEB, suffered from credit losses of 11 370 Million SEK or 200 percent of operating profit. In this paper we identified various default prediction models used on the market to study the problems. Nonetheless, comparing the studies have shown that such prediction models like Altman’s Z-Score models in Sweden are problematic to use due to the inaccurate results they provide. As a consequence, the study is aimed at adjusting the Z’-Score model.

    In this paper we will test adjusted models, based on Altman’s original variables, in order to obtain a more accurate model. The sample selection consists of financial reports from small Swedish manufacturing firms. The Z’-Score model were adjusted using the multiple discriminant analysis.

    To sum up, the models, which we have adjusted, had shown improvement in predicting the firms more accurately than for the Z’-Score model applied on our sample. Our Zut-model performed an accuracy of 86,1 percent, which contrasted to the Z’-score model showing an accuracy of 73,6 percent.

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