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  • 1.
    Andersson, Henrik
    et al.
    Toulouse School of Economics, University of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    The Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Stockholm, Sweden; Centre for Transport Studies, KTH, Sweden .
    Economic Analysis and Investment Priorities in Sweden's Transport Sector2018In: Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, ISSN 2194-5888, E-ISSN 2152-2812, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 120-146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Beginning as a planning tool within Sweden's national road administration some 50 years ago, benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has come to be a pillar of the national transport policy because of subsequent strategic choices made by the national parliament. These choices made it necessary to widen the analysis of costs to include also externalities and a foregone conclusion was that efficient investment priorities should be made based on BCA. But no one asked whether the political decision makers or the BCA models were up to that task. This paper reviews the institutional framework and practice of BCA in Sweden for transport infrastructure investment, and considers design issues that have been and still are debated, such as whether the discount rate should include a risk term and how to account for the marginal cost of public funds. A main concern with BCA results is the underestimation of construction costs, making transport sector projects look better than they are. Several ex post analyses have established that a higher NPV ratio increases the probability of being included in the investment program proposal prepared by the agency. The requirement to let projects undergo BCA seems to make planners trim project proposals by trying to reduce investment costs without significantly reducing benefits. This relationship is weaker among profitable projects. Moreover, there is no correlation between rate of return and the probability of being included in the final program, which is established on political grounds.

  • 2. Arnek, Magnus
    et al.
    Bergman, MatsEdquist, HaraldHultkrantz, LarsÖrebro University, Örebro University School of Business.Lundberg, SofiaSvensson, MikaelÖrebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Den offentliga sektorn: en antologi om att mäta produktivitet och prestationer2013Collection (editor) (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 3.
    Bratt-Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholms universitet, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Kågeson, Per
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Transportekonomi (TEK), Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI), Linköping, Sverige.
    Jättestor nytta, men ännu större kostnad2016In: Dagens Nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 4. Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Holst Volden, GroHultkrantz, LarsÖrebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.Karlström, UrbanNyström, JohanStatens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI), Linköping, Sverige.Owen Jansson, JanVredin, Anders
    Investeringar in blanco?: en ESO-rapport om behovet av infrastruktur2013Collection (editor) (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Centrum för transportstudier (CTS), Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    VTI- infrastrukturinvesteringar, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Flam, Harry
    Institutet för internationell ekonomi, Stockholms universitet, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Kågeson, Per
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Stoppa Ostlänken nu!: Debatt2016In: Dagens IndustriArticle, book review (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 6.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Transportekonomi (TEK), Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI), Linköping, Sverige.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Kågeson, Per
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Flam, Harry
    Stockholms universitet, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Stoppa Ostlänken nu!2016In: Dagens Industri, ISSN 0346-640X, no 3 augustiArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 7. Carlén, Björn
    et al.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Liu, Xing
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Lunander, Anders
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Mandell, Svante
    Transportekonomi (TEK), Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Linköping, Sweden.
    Mellin, Anna
    Havs- och vattenmyndigheten, Göteborg, Sverige.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Transportekonomi, TEK, Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Linköping, Sverige .
    Pyddoke, Roger
    Transportekonomi, TEK, Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Linköping, Sverige .
    Sorkina, Edith
    Göteborgs universitet, Göteborg, Sverige.
    Vierth, Inge
    Transportekonomi, TEK, Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Linköping, Sverige .
    Landbaserade godstransporter, klimat och styrmedel: underlagsrapporter 1-102014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    VTI notat 28-2014 contains the ten underlying reports which is the base for VTI report 831: “Land based freight transports, climate and policy – Summary report”. In VTI report 831, the researchers discuss greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport and how they could be reduced. They address these questions from several different angles. For example, they discuss the introduction of so-called green corridors and propose tools to solve the complex coordination problems that are associated with these corridors. Furthermore, there is a discussion on how to view the climate change impact from shifting road to rail or electrified vehicles on road.

  • 8.
    Eliasson, Gunnar
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Finnveden, Göran
    Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Heshmati, Almas
    Internationella handelshögskolan i Jönköping, Jönköping, Sverige.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Lööf, Hans
    Entreprenörskap och Innovation, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Stephan, Andreas
    Internationella handelshögskolan i Jönköping, Jönköping, Sverige.
    Westlund, Hans
    Urbana och regionala studier, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sverige.
    Ojnare kan bli ett svenskt exempel i FN2015In: Dagens OpinionArticle in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 9. Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    Smidfelt Rosqvist, Lena
    The Stockholm congestion - charging trial 2006: Overview of effects2009In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 240-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 demonstrated the effects of a full-scale time-differentiated urban road toll scheme. Improvements in travel times were large enough to be perceived by the general public. This was pivotal to the radical change of public attitudes that occurred during the trial and that resulted in a positive outcome of a subsequent referendum on a proposal for making the system permanent. This paper summarises the effects of the trial and analyses to what extent targets were met. Effects on congestion reduction were larger than anticipated, which also resulted in favourable economic and environmental effects. The trial showed that a single-cordon toll could affect traffic within a large area, i.e., not just close to the zone limits.

  • 10. Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Smidfelt Rosqvist, Lena
    Introduction: Editorial2009In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 237-239Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Forsstedt, Sara
    et al.
    Transportstyrelsen, Norrköping, Sverige.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI), Linköping, Sverige.
    Yarmukhamedov, Sherzod
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI), Linköping, Sverige.
    Hur väl fungerar försäkringsbranschen?2015In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 43, no 6, p. 40-47Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 12. Hagen, Kåre P.
    et al.
    Berntsen, Stein
    Bye, Brita
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Nyborg, Karine
    Pedersen, Karl Rolf
    Sandsmark, Maria
    Holst Volden, Gro
    Åvitsland, Geir
    Samfunnsøkonomiske analyser2012Report (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    A note on high-speed rail investments and travelers`value of time2013In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714, Vol. 3, no 1-2, p. 14-21Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High-speed rail (HSR) is designed for travellers with high value of time. HSR offers fast and reliable services and good possibilities for work during the journey. Surprisingly, these benefits of HSR investments are often appraised with travel-time value of people who use conventional train services. This note considers under what circumstances the assumption that the value of time remains unchanged by the speed improvement induces a significant bias in appraisals. We first outline some conceptual points with a modal-mix model where travellers have varying value of time and then discuss how this could affect the social profitability of three recently constructed or proposed HSR lines: Oslo–Stockholm (Norway and Sweden), Stockholm–Goteborg (Sweden) and Beijing–Shanghai Hongqiao (China). We conclude that economic evaluations of HSR line should at the least be complemented by a sensitivity analysis of the possible effect of a change of the composition of travellers with various values of travel time.

  • 14.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Allsidig lärobok om tjänstesektorn2012In: Ekonomisk debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 40, no 8, p. 94-96Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 15.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Att styra kommunsektorn - exemplet fallprevention2010In: Ekonomisk debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 38, no 6, p. 33-42Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 16.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Att utvärdera sociala investeringar2015Book (Refereed)
  • 17.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Benefit-Cost Evaluation of Prevention and Early Intervention Measures for Children and Youth in Sweden2018In: Social Impact Investing Beyond the SIB: Evidence from the Market / [ed] Mario La TorreMario Calderini, Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, p. 177-194Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter reports on an on-going effort in Sweden to create a societal benefit-cost model for evaluation of causal effects of interventions for supporting children and young people at some developmental risk. This work is motivated by needs for such evaluation tools in planning, selection and follow-up of public and private impact investments. So far, modules have been created for economic evaluation of life-course, labour-market-related outcomes, some short- and medium-term cost offsets and the value of mortality and morbidity effects. On-going work includes estimation of the willingness to pay for suicide prevention and the costs of crime. However, as indicated by two case studies that are briefly summarised, even incomplete estimates of the benefit side are sometime sufficient to indicate high societal returns of early intervention and prevention measures.

  • 18.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Bättre planering för olyckor: Slutrapport från projektet Effekter för säkerhetsarbete inom olycksomrpdet (ESS)" - Ett ramprojekt finansierat av Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap MSB2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna rapport redovisas resultat och slutsatser från forskningsprojektet ”Effekter för säkerhetsarbeteinom olycksområdet (ESS)”. Projektet genomfördes 2009-13 med finansiering från Myndigheten förSamhällsskydd och Beredskap (MSB) som ett s.k. ramprojekt. Projektets övergripande mål var att bidratill att utveckla kunskaper och metoder som kan förbättra planeringen av insatser för att förebygga ochför att minska konsekvenserna av olyckor med avseende på mål- och kostnadseffektivitet.Projektet initierades genom att MSB bad tre forskargrupper som sökt medel för begränsade projekt medinriktning på olika typer av olyckor ombads samverka. Jag har lett projektet tillsammans med MikaelSvensson, Örebro universitet (ÖU) och Karlstads universitet (KaU). Projektet har varit organiserat i trearbetslag. AL1, med inriktning på samhällsekonomisk analys och högfrekventa olyckor, har letts av HenrikJaldell, KaU; AL2, med inriktning på ras och översvämning har letts av Yvonne Andersson-Sköld vidkonsultfirman COWI, tidigare Sveriges Geologiska Institut, SIG; och AL3, med inriktning på kemikalie- ochdeponiolyckor, har letts av Maria Arm vid SIG. Övriga forskare som har deltagit i projektet är Jonas Fejes,IFL; Niclas Krüger, ÖU och KaU; Anders Lagerkvist, Luleå Tekniska Universitet; Lars Nyberg, KaU; ThomasRihm, SGI ;Linda Ryen, ÖU, KaU och MSB; samt Björn Sund, ÖU, KaU och MSB.De tre arbetslagen har haft referensgrupper och hela projektet har tillsammans med ett systerprojekt vidUmeå universitet haft en särskild referensgrupp. Huvudansvarig projektledare från MSBs sida har varitBodil Lundberg

  • 19.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Bör besöksattraktioner subventioneras?2014In: Från Bob Dylan till Way Out West: en vänbok till Tommy D Andersson / [ed] John Armbrecht, Erik Lundberg, Lena Mossberg, Göteborg: Bokförlaget BAS, 2014, p. 63-68Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 20.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Den offentliga sektorns ekonomi2011In: Marknad och politik / [ed] Lars Hultkrantz, Hans Tson Söderström, Stockholm: SNS förlag, 2011, 9, p. 148-182Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 21.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    ESO och bristen på systematisk analys av politikens konsekvenser2017In: Att vara brygga mellan forskning och politik: en festskrift från nya ESO:s 10-årsjubileum / [ed] Hans Lindblad, Stockholm: Wolters Kluwer, 2017Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 22.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    High-speed rail investments and traveler's value of time2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 23.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Intellektuellt funktionshindrade etablering på arbetsmarknaden: kommunerna kan göra mycket mer2016In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 44, no 7, p. 65-76Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    En stor andel av de ungdomar som går på särgymnasiet hamnar utanför arbetsmarknaden trots statliga lönebidrag. I stället blir de sysselsatta i kommunernas ”daglig verksamhet”, som sällan leder vidare. Enligt flera studier som här sammanfattas konstaterar jag att detta i hög grad beror på brister i den ekonomiska styrningen. Det finns beprövade arbetssätt som väsentligt ökar chanserna till arbete efter examen. Trots att dessa kostar rätt mycket är den samhällsekonomiska lönsamheten hög och kan även vara kostnadsbesparande för kommunerna. Vidare är det de kommuner som har systematiska rutiner för att få brukarna av ”daglig verksamhet” i arbete som lyckas med detta.

  • 24.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Its now or never: can hypothetical bias in value of time studies be avoided?2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Kalkylräntan2018In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 46, no 7, p. 50-54Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 26.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    National account of timber and forest environmental resources in Sweden2011In: Green national accounting and sustainability / [ed] Karl-Gustaf Löfgren, Chuan-Zhong Li, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Ska kommunerna styras eller styra sig själva med evidensbaserad praktik?2011In: Perspektiv på offentlig verksamhet i utveckling: tolv kapitel om demokrati, styrning och effektivitet / [ed] Ann-Sofie Hellberg, Martin Karlsson, Hannu Larsson, Erik Lundberg, Monika Persson, Örebro: Örebro universitet , 2011, p. 33-45Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 28.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Sociala investeringsfonder2016In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 44, no 3, p. 36-48Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den svenska välfärdssektorns framtid ligger till stor del i kommunernas händer. Det är där en stor del av det utvecklingsarbete måste ske som krävs för att möta ökad efterfrågan, förbättra kvaliteten och förhindra att kostnaderna rusar. Kommunerna måste bli bättre på dels att genom tidiga insatser och prevention minska framtida utgiftsbehov, dels utveckla ett systematiskt evidensbaserat förändringsarbete. Men kommunernas ekonomiska styrning tenderar snarare att uppmuntra till kortsiktighet, stuprörstänkande och ointresse för effektutvär-deringar. I denna artikel ger jag en översikt över det aktuella läget när det gäller sociala investeringsfonder i kommuner och landsting/regioner. Jag menar att några av dessa börjat utveckla arbetssätt som kan bli goda förebilder för hela kommunsektorn. Fortsatt utvecklingsarbete behövs liksom engagemang på både statlig och regional nivå.

  • 29.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Sociala investeringsfonder – ett nytt sätt att styra kommunalt förändringsarbete?2014In: Socialmedicinsk Tidskrift, ISSN 0037-833X, Vol. 91, no 3Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Several Swedish municipalities have recently set up ”Social Investment Funds”. These can be seen as instruments for enhancing innovation and learning based on the municipalities own practice. Both the national financial control of the local government sector and the internal budgeting processes make it difficult to fund novel preventive measures with long-term and perhaps uncertain effects, such as early interventions for children with mental disorders. The “Social Investment Funds” provide routines for generating, scrutinizing, selecting, and evaluating innovative measures with investment features that involve risk. The design of the funds, in particular pay-backs when measures result in avoided costs, has spurred an enhanced interest in evaluations of impact and societal cost-benefit outcomes.

  • 30.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Sociala investeringsfonder i Sverige: fakta och lärdomar2015Book (Refereed)
  • 31.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Säkrare trafik med smarta försäkringar2012In: Ekonomisk debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 40, no 6, p. 16-22Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 32.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Utvärdering av högskoleutbildningarna i nationalekonomi2012In: Ekonomisk debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 40, no 5, p. 58-67Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 33.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Vet vi om transportinvesteringar är lönsamma?2013In: Investeringar in blanco?: en ESO-rapport om behovet av infrastruktur / [ed] Runar Brännlund, Gro Holst Volden, Lars Hultkrantz, Urban Karlström, Johan Nyström, Jan Owen Jansson, Anders Vredin, Stockholm: Finansdepartementet, Regeringskansliet , 2013, 1, p. 95-124Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 34.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Andersson, Linda
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Mantalos, Panagiotis
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909-2012: Testing for non-stationarity2014In: Journal of Forest Economics, ISSN 1104-6899, E-ISSN 1618-1530, Vol. 20, no 1, p. 33-46Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from 1909 to 1990, employing data up to 2012, hence for 104 years, and unit-root tests with endogenously selected break points. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion. There is thus no sign of a new break in the extended recent time period and no signal of a secular increase of timber resource scarcity. (C) 2013 Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lima Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  • 35.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Flam, Harry
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Gamla och irrelevanta påståenden2017In: Dagens Nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 4/12Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 36.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Karpaty, Patrik
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Vimefall, Elin
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Education-earnings linkage for assessing societal benefits of interventions for children and youth in Sweden2017In: Psychosocial Intervention, ISSN 1132-0559, E-ISSN 2173-4712, Vol. 26, no 3, p. 171-179Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Some long-term societal benefits of early psychosocial interventions supporting children and youth at various developmental risks can be estimated with school results as a mediatory. In this paper we develop causal education-earnings links for educational achievement thresholds at the end of the nine-year compulsory school (CS) and the three-year upper secondary school (USS) in Sweden. Gross earnings are calculated with age profiles estimated on micro-level register data for the whole population. We also estimate the indirect costs of education (forgone earnings) with this data and find that they can be ignored. For the base case, we calculate the expected net present value of meeting minimum requirements for transition from CS to a national USS-program to €112,000 (SEK 1.1 million) and for graduation from such a program to €163,000 (SEK 1.6 million).

  • 37.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Krüger, Niclas
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Mantalos, Panagiotis
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment2014In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 47, p. 70-81Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We modify a method recently suggested by Weitzman (2012, 2013) for determining a risk-adjusted social discount rate (SDR) term structure consistent with both the (augmented) Ramsey rule and the consumption-based CAPM. Using this approach we estimate SDR for transportation infrastructure investments based on an analysis of correlations between transportation, split between road and rail, and between passenger travel and freight transport, and GDP in Sweden 1950–2011. We show that this can be estimated from two time-series following a random walk with drift, even if the variables are not co-integrated. Based on current estimates of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium, we estimate the relevant SDR to be 5–6 per cent, possibly somewhat lower for investment in railroads for passenger travel, and only slowly declining within the investment horizon. This is higher than the current rates used in, for instance, Sweden, Germany and the UK.

  • 38.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Larsson-Tholén, Susanna
    The Swedish Institute for Disability Research, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
    Värja, Emelie
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Equality of Quality of Day Activity Service Programs in SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 39.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Accident cost, speed and vehicle mass externalities and insurance2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Traffic accidents are a human tragedy that kills 1.2 million people worldwide annually (World Health Organization, 2004). The cost of traffic accidents are huge and recent estimates for US alone suggest the cost to be USD 433 billion in year 2000 or 4.3 percentage of GDP (Parry et al, 2007). A reduction of this cost can be done in two ways, either by reducing the number of accidents or by mitigating the consequences of the existing accidents. Insurance systems can contribute to both.

  • 40.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Intelligent economic speed adaptation2003In: 10th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR), 2003, p. 1-20Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Internalisation of external costs of transport has hitherto been focused on distance-based charges. While this may affect driven distance, it has no influence on driving behaviour. We demonstrate in this economic field experiment that it today is possible to observe drivers actual behaviour with GPS technology and thus possible to refine the economic incentives. To ensure participation, we give drivers a monthly bonus, which is reduced according to the speed behaviour. We make the experiment with two different bonus levels and two different price levels. Our pricing scheme significantly reduces the proportion speed violations of the participants and we conclude that this is a possible way to improve car drivers speed behaviour.

  • 41.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Pay-as-you-speed: an economic field experiment2011In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 45, no 3, p. 415-436Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We report a vehicle-fleet experiment with an economic incentive for keeping within speed limits using a speed-alert device. A traffic insurance scheme was simulated for two months with a monthly bonus that was reduced by a non-linear speeding penalty. Participants were randomly assigned into four treatment and two control groups. A third control group consisted of drivers who had the device and were monitored, but did not participate. We found that participating drivers reduced severe speeding during the first month, but in the second, after having received feedback reports with an account of earned payments, only those given a penalty changed their behaviour.

  • 42.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics.
    Lindberg, Gunnar
    Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics.
    Andersson, Camilla
    The value of improved road safety2006In: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, ISSN 0895-5646, E-ISSN 1573-0476, Vol. 32, no 2, p. 151-170Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We report the results of a contingent valuation study for finding a conservative estimate of the value-of-statistical-life in an urban road safety context in Sweden. We estimate the value of both a private-good device and a public-good safety program. The reduction of risk is communicated with a “community analogy” representation of the “Vision Zero” target of the national traffic-safety policy. According to this target, the road-traffic system should be designed so as to prevent accidents when they happen to lead to fatalities or severe injuries. We use the “certainty approach” for ex-post correction of results to remove or mitigate hypothetical bias of responses. As expected we find insensitivity of responses in the full sample to the size of the risk reduction being valued. By our approach we can compute a conservative estimate, based on answers from fully confident respondents, of the value of the largest possible safety enhancement (i.e. fulfilment of the “Vision Zero”). This lower bound estimate indicates a higher average willingness-to-pay for public safety-improving measures than currently assumed in benefit-cost assessments. We also find that the willingness to pay is considerably lower within a public-good than a private-good framework and a weak indication of sensitivity to scale among the most confident respondents.

  • 43.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Liu, Xing
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Green cars sterilize congestion charges: a model analysis of the reduced impact of Stockholm road tolls2012In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 21, p. 110-118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Before–after comparisons indicate that the impact of the road toll in Stockholm on traffic volumes was smaller when the system was re-opened in 2007, compared to the effect during the trial in 2006. We calibrate a modal-choice model on data for Stockholm from before and during the trial and use it to simulate the effects of some seemingly subtle changes of the design of the congestion-charge scheme. We find that the growth of the share of exempted “green” cars and the decision to make charges deductible from the income tax was about to considerably reduce the positive welfare effect of the toll at the time when the “green” car exemption was abolished.

  • 44.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Lunander, Anders
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Design of a combinatorial bidding market for Green Corridor freight2011Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Green Corridor (GC) initiative, pursued by the Swedish government and the European Commission, is intended to be a platform for innovation for long-distance freight transport aiming for more green and efficient solutions by enhanced use of economies of scale and development of new technologies. However, scale has to be traded off by two other aspects (i) freight transport time and reliability, and (ii) economies of scope. In this paper we present an already existing rail corridor case that highlights the need for tools (and/or markets) for making more efficient tradeoffs between economies of scale and scope in long-distance freight transport. This involves making very complex coordination of shipments that are differentiated with respect to origins-destinations, shipment size, time, time reliability requirements, regularity of shipments and involving both ex ante transport planning and real-time control. A market-based method that in principle could be used to solve such complex coordination is combinatorial auctioning and we briefly review a number of Swedish public tendering cases where this is done in practice. However, this raises questions on whether a fragmented vertically separated European rail industry can mobilize the "soft" market infrastructure needed to support a Green Corridor.

  • 45.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Mantalos, Panagiotis
    Linneaus University, Växjö, Sweden.
    Hedging with trees: Tail-hedge discounting of long-term forestry returns2018In: Journal of Forest Economics, ISSN 1104-6899, E-ISSN 1618-1530, Vol. 30, p. 52-57Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Tail-hedge discounting is based on decomposition of returns from long-term investments in a fraction (gamma) that is correlated with consumption and another that is not. The first part is discounted at a discount rate that includes a risk premium, the other with the risk-free rate. We estimate gamma for forestry on Swedish data for stumpage prices and GDP per capita 1909-2012. We demonstrate that the result considerably changes the expected present value of medium-term and long-term forest investments.

  • 46.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Arvidsson, Sara
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Voluntary internalization of speeding externalitiesManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 47.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Nilsson, Jan-Eric
    Arvidsson, Sara
    Örebro University, Örebro University School of Business.
    Voluntary internalization of speeding externalities with vehicle insurance2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 6, p. 926-937Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High speed is an important determinant of accidents for speeders as well as for other motorists. This paper develops a framework for analyzing instruments that encourage drivers to internalize the full consequences of their behavior with respect to choice of speed using Pay-As-You-Speed (PAYS) insurance, possibly as an extension of Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance. We demonstrate how the combination of a Pigovian taxation scheme and PAYS can be designed in a setting involving two principals (the state and an insurance company) that affect the incentives of commuters to choose between driving and other modes of transport and for those that use the car mode to drive carefully. While the government is assumed to maximize overall social efficiency and therefore wants to implement marginal cost pricing, insurance companies do actuarial pricing, i.e. average cost pricing within risk classes that are homogeneous to the degree that the insurers have information about actual behavior. PAYS insurance improves the insurance industry's possibility to differentiate premiums according to behavior and therefore to target risk classes in a better way than today. Moreover, since our framework is designed to accomplish differentiation by self-selection, compulsory regulation is not necessary, although there may be reason for the government to facilitate the implementation of the new technology. 

  • 48.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Nilsson, Jan-Erik
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Samhällsekonomisk analys: en introduktion till mikroekonomin2008 (ed. 2)Book (Other academic)
  • 49.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Olofsson, Sara
    Persson, Ulf
    Gerdtham, Ulf
    Personskadekostnader och livskvalitetsförlust till följd av vägtrafikolyckor och fotgängarolyckor singel2016Report (Other academic)
  • 50.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    et al.
    Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University.
    Olofsson, Sara
    Persson, Ulf
    Gerdtham, Ulf
    Riskvärden för vägtrafikolyckor: en pilotstudie av betalningsvilja härledd via CV och kedje-ansats2016Report (Other academic)
12 1 - 50 of 78
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