To Örebro University

BACKGROUND: The WHO hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination goal includes achieving ≥80% treatment coverage by 2030. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess Sweden's progress toward elimination by estimating national HCV treatment uptake and identifying associated factors.

METHODS: This nationwide register-based study includes individuals notified with HCV infection in Sweden 1990-2022. Treatment uptake was defined as at least one dispensation of HCV treatment recorded in the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register (SPDR) by the end of 2023. As the SPDR was initiated in 2005, treatment uptake was specifically analyzed in individuals notified 2005-2022. Median time from notification to treatment was analyzed annually.

RESULTS: Among 29,815 included individuals, 24,007 (81%) had started treatment. Among notified 2005-2022, treatment uptake was 81% (13,155/16,241) by 2022 and 85% (13,548/15,930) by 2023. Factors associated with lower odds of treatment uptake were: amphetamine use diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.83), opioid use diagnosis (0.71; 0.60-0.84), combined amphetamine/opioid use diagnoses (0.75; 0.62-0.91), other drug use diagnoses (0.70; 0.60-0.81), coinfection with hepatitis B virus (0.54; 0.39-0.76), male sex (0.73; 0.67-0.81) and ≤9 years of education (0.81; 0.70-0.94). The odds were higher in individuals aged ≥60 (1.26; 1.10-1.44) years. Median time to treatment was 2.8 months (IQR 1.7-5.6) among individuals notified in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS: Sweden has reached the WHO treatment target, with treatment uptake ≥80%. In recent years, the median time to treatment has decreased to a few months. Continued efforts are needed to maintain this progress, particularly among people who inject drugs where HCV incidence remains high.

BACKGROUND: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains elevated in cirrhotic hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA treatment. We assessed long-term HCC risk stratified by pretreatment liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and developed a risk score algorithm.

METHODS: This register-based nationwide cohort study of 7,227 DAA-treated patients with SVR evaluated annual HCC incidence rates (IRs) and cumulative incidences stratified by pretreatment LSM. The association between LSM and HCC risk was analyzed using multivariate Cox regression. A risk score algorithm was developed and internally validated in 2,664 individuals with LSM >9.5 kPa, assigning each patient a score based on risk factors, proportionally weighted by the association with HCC risk.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 1.8 years (3.2 years for LSM ≥12.5 kPa), 92 patients (1.3%) developed HCC. The IRs for LSM 9.5-12.4, 12.5-19.9 and ≥20 kPa were 0.21, 0.99 and 2.20 HCC/100 PY, respectively, with no significant risk reduction during follow-up. The HRs (and 95% CI) for LSM 9.5-12.5, 12.5-19.9 and ≥20 kPa are 1.19 (0.43-3.28), 4.66 (2.17-10.01) and 10.53 (5.26-21.08), respectively. Risk score models including FIB-4, alcohol, diabetes, age and LSM effectively stratified patients with LSM >9.5 kPa into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, with a Harrell's C of 0.799. Notably, 48% with LSM ≥9.5 kPa and 27% ≥12.5 kPa were classified as low-risk.

CONCLUSION: Pretreatment LSM is associated with HCC risk, which remains stable during the initial five years post-SVR. The HCC risk score algorithm effectively identifies low-risk patients, who may not require HCC surveillance.

OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CeD) has been associated with a low response to hepatitis B (HBV) vaccination, but guidelines for testing and revaccination among individuals with CeD are sparse. We examined the risk of future HBV among individuals with CeD in a population-based Swedish cohort. Furthermore, we examined the rate of prior HBV infection in CeD patients.

METHODS: All individuals in Sweden diagnosed with biopsy-verified CeD between 1990 and 2017 were identified through the ESPRESSO cohort. Each individual with CeD was matched by age, sex, calendar year, and birth country (Nordic vs. other) with up to 5 reference individuals.

RESULTS: We identified 44,721 CeD and 222,238 reference individuals. The incidence rates of diagnosed HBV were 2.3 and 2.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. This represented no association with CeD (HR 0.77 (0.45-1.30)). This null association was similar for those with a Nordic (HR 0.80 (0.40-1.60)) and non-Nordic ((HR 0.31 (0.09-1.08)) country of birth. Rates of prior HBV infection were low (CeD 0.08%, controls 0.06%). This corresponded to a small but insignificant increase among individuals with CeD (odds ratio, OR 1.41 (0.97-2.05).

CONCLUSION: In a population-based Swedish cohort, there was no increased risk of developing HBV in individuals with CeD. This finding does not support current practices of testing and revaccination for HBV. Additional studies should be completed in areas with higher endemic rates of HBV. Slightly higher rates of prior HBV infection in CeD may be secondary to increased testing in those seeking medical care for another disease process.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The year 2023 marked the 10-year anniversary of the launch of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for the treatment of the hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV treatment trends by country, region, and globally are important to monitor progress toward the World Health Organization's 2030 elimination targets. Additionally, the historical patterns can help predict the treatment uptake for future therapies for other liver diseases.

METHODS: The number of people living with HCV (PLHCV) treated between 2014-2023 across 119 countries was estimated using national HCV registries, reported DAA sales data, pharmaceutical companies' reports, and estimates provided by national experts. For the countries with no available data, the average estimate of the corresponding Global Burden of Disease region was used.

RESULTS: An estimated 13,816,000 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 13,221,000-16,415,000) PLHCV were treated, of whom 12,748,000 (12,226,000-15,231,000) were treated with DAAs, of which 11,081,000 (10,542,000-13,338,000) were sofosbuvir-based DAA regimens. Country-level data accounted for 97% of these estimates. In high-income countries, there was a 41% drop in treatment from its peak, and reimbursement was a large predictor of treatment. In low- and middle-income countries, price played an important role in expanding treatment access through the public and private markets, and treatment continues to increase slowly after a sharp drop at the end of the Egyptian national program.

CONCLUSIONS: In the last 10 years, 21% of all HCV infections were treated with DAAs. Regional and temporal variations highlight the importance of active screening strategies. Without program enhancements, the number of treated PLHCV stalled in every country/region which may not reflect a lower prevalence but may instead reflect the diminishing returns of the existing strategies.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Long-term hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer. Since 2014, these infections can be effectively treated with 8-12 weeks of oral therapies. In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) established targets to eliminate HCV by 2030, which included treatment targets for member countries. The current study examines HCV treatment patterns across 119 countries and regions from 2014 to 2023 to assess the impact of national programs. This study can assist physicians and policymakers in understanding treatment patterns within similar regions or income groups and in utilizing historical data to refine their strategies in the future.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a satellite RNA virus that requires the hepatitis B virus (HBV) for assembly and propagation. Individuals infected with HDV progress to advanced liver disease faster than HBV mono-infected individuals. Recent studies have estimated the global prevalence of anti-HDV antibodies among the HBV-infected population to be 5-15%. This study aimed to better understand HDV prevalence at the population level in 25 countries/territories.

METHODS: We conducted a literature review for anti-HDV and HDV-RNA-positive prevalence in HBsAg positive individuals in 25 countries/territories. Virtual meetings were held with experts from each setting to discuss the findings and collect unpublished data. Data were weighted for patient segments and regional heterogeneity to estimate the prevalence in the HBV-infected population. The findings were then combined with The Polaris Observatory HBV data to estimate the anti-HDV & HDV-RNA prevalence in each country/territory at the population level.

RESULTS: After adjusting for geographical distribution, disease stage and special populations, the anti-HDV prevalence among the HBsAg+ population changed from the literature estimate in 19 countries. The highest anti-HDV prevalence was 60.1% in Mongolia. Once adjusted for the HBsAg+ population and HDV-RNA+, China had the highest absolute number of HDV-RNA+ cases.

CONCLUSIONS: We found substantially lower HDV prevalence than previously reported, as prior meta-analyses primarily focused on studies conducted in groups/regions that have a higher probability of HBV infection: tertiary care centers, specific risk groups or geographical regions. There is large uncertainty in HDV prevalence estimates. The implementation of reflex testing would improve estimates, while also allowing earlier linkage to care for HDV RNA+ individuals. The logistical and economic burden of reflex testing on the health system would be limited, as only HBsAg+ cases would be screened.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the prevalence of HDV among people living with HBV at the population level. This study aimed to better understand the burden in 25 countries and territories, to refine techniques that can be used in future analyses. We found a lower prevalence in the majority of places studied than had been previously reported. These data can help inform policy makers on the need to screen people living with HBV to find those coinfected with HDV and at high risk for progression, while also highlighting the pitfalls that other researchers have often fallen into.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous studies have shown suboptimal screening for hepatitis D virus (HDV) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study presents the cascade of care for HDV infection in a major secondary referral centre in Southern Stockholm, Sweden.

METHODS: HBsAg+ve patients attending Karolinska University Hospital (KUH) from 1992 to 2022 were identified. The prevalence of anti-HDV and/or HDV RNA positivity, interferon (IFN) therapy and maintained virological responses (MVR) after HDV treatment were assessed. Also, time to anti-HDV testing was analysed in relation to liver-related outcomes with logistic regression.

RESULTS: Among 4095 HBsAg+ve persons, 3703 (90.4%) underwent an anti-HDV screening; within a median of 1.8 months (range 0.0-57.1) after CHB diagnosis. This screening rate increased over time, to 97.9% in the last decade. Overall, 310 (8.4%) were anti-HDV+ve, of which 202 (65.2%) were HDV RNA+ve. Eighty-five (42%) received IFN, and 9 (10.6%) achieved MVR at the last follow-up. The predictive factors for anti-HDV screening were Asian origin, diagnosis after the year 2012, HIV co-infection (negative factor) and HBV DNA level < 2000 IU/mL in univariable analysis, while HIV co-infection was the only remaining factor in multivariable analysis. Delayed anti-HDV test >5 years was independently associated with worsened liver-related outcomes (adjusted odds ratio = 7.6, 95% CI 1.8-31.6).

CONCLUSION: Higher frequency of HDV screening than previously published data could be seen among CHB patients at KUH in a low-endemic setting. Receiving a delayed screening test seems to be associated with worse outcomes, stressing the need of a strategy for timely HDV diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: The international recommendations of HCC surveillance for African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis are divergent, probably due to scarce data on incidence rate (IR) for HCC.

METHODS: We assembled a cohort with prospectively collected data of Swedish residents of African origin with diagnosed CHB without cirrhosis at baseline from 1990 to 2015. Data from nationwide registers were used to calculate the sex-specific IR and IR ratio (incidence rate ratios) in relation to age, comorbidities, and birth region, using a generalized linear model with a log-link function and Poisson distribution.

RESULTS: Among 3865 African-born persons with CHB without cirrhosis at baseline, 31 (0.8%; 77.4% men) developed HCC during a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, with poor survival after HCC diagnosis. The mean age at HCC diagnosis was 46.8 (SD±14.7; range 23-79) in men. HCC IR exceeded the recommended surveillance threshold of 0.2%/year at ages 54 and 59 years in men and women, respectively, and at ages 20-40 years if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. African-born men with CHB had an incidence rate ratios of 10.6 (95% CI 4.4-31.5) for HCC compared to matched African-born peers without CHB, and an incidence rate ratios of 35.3 (95% CI 16.0-88.7) compared to a matched general population.

CONCLUSIONS: African-born men with CHB without cirrhosis reached an IR of 0.2%/year between 50 and 60 years, and at younger ages if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. Our findings need further confirmation, and new cost-effectiveness analyses specific for young populations are needed, to provide personalized and cost-effective HCC surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as a public health threat by 2030; existing therapies and prophylaxis measures make such elimination feasible, even in the absence of a virological cure. We aimed to estimate the national, regional, and global prevalence of HBV in the general population and among children aged 5 years and younger, as well as the rates of diagnosis, treatment, prophylaxis, and the future burden globally.

METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a Delphi process with data from literature reviews and interviews with country experts to quantify the prevalence, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention measures for HBV infection. The PRoGReSs Model, a dynamic Markov model, was used to estimate the country, regional, and global prevalence of HBV infection in 2022, and the effects of treatment and prevention on disease burden. The future incidence of morbidity and mortality in the absence of additional interventions was also estimated at the global level.

FINDINGS: We developed models for 170 countries which resulted in an estimated global prevalence of HBV infection in 2022 of 3·2% (95% uncertainty interval 2·7-4·0), corresponding to 257·5 million (216·6-316·4) individuals positive for HBsAg. Of these individuals, 36·0 million were diagnosed, and only 6·8 million of the estimated 83·3 million eligible for treatment were on treatment. The prevalence among children aged 5 years or younger was estimated to be 0·7% (0·6-1·0), corresponding to 5·6 million (4·5-7·8) children with HBV infection. Based on the most recent data, 85% of infants received three-dose HBV vaccination before 1 year of age, 46% had received a timely birth dose of vaccine, and 14% received hepatitis B immunoglobulin along with the full vaccination regimen. 3% of mothers with a high HBV viral load received antiviral treatment to reduce mother-to-child transmission.

INTERPRETATION: As 2030 approaches, the elimination targets remain out of reach for many countries under the current frameworks. Although prevention measures have had the most success, there is a need to increase these efforts and to increase diagnosis and treatment to work towards the elimination goals.

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.