To Örebro University

Artificiell intelligens (AI) har potential att bidra till att hantera kompetensbrist och arbetskraftsbehov i offentlig sektor. Vi undersöker med scenarioanalyser de effekter tekniken kan ha på produktivitet och arbetskraftsbehov. Dessutom analyserar vi utmaningar med tekniken. Resultaten visar på potential för både tydliga produktivitetsökningar och ett minskat arbetskraftsbehov, där även måttliga produktivitetsökningar kan leda till en ökad långsiktig tillväxttakt. För att detta ska realiseras krävs det dock omfattande insatser, inklusive kompetensutveckling och strategiskt ledarskap.

This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014 to 2022 and full-population administrative data for Sweden. We exploit a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers.

This paper examines how new technologies are linked to changes in the content of work and individual wages. As a first step, it documents novel facts on task and skill changes within occupations over the past two decades in Germany. We furthermore reveal a distinct relationship between ex-ante occupational work content and ex-post exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation (robots). Workers in occupations with high AI exposure perform different activities and face different skill requirements compared to workers in occupations exposed to robots, suggesting that robots and AI are substitutes for different activities and skills. We also document that changes in the task and skill content of occupations is related to ex-ante exposure to technologies. Finally, the study uses individual labour market biographies to investigate the relationship between AI and wages. By exploring the dynamic influence of AI exposure on individuals over time, the study uncovers positive associations with wages, with nuanced variations across occupational groups, thereby shedding further light on the substitutability and augmentability of AI.

We use survival analysis to analyse the impact of export credit guarantees on firms' export duration using granular Swedish panel data at the firm-country and firm-country-product levels. The estimation results show that firms' export survival substantially increases with guarantees, at both levels. The associations are particularly strong for smaller firms and contracts as well as in trade with riskier markets. The findings have implications for policies to promote long-run export growth.

We unbox developments in artificial intelligence (AI) to estimate how exposure to these developments affect firm-level labour demand, using detailed register data from Denmark, Portugal and Sweden over two decades. Based on data on AI capabilities and occupational work content, we develop and validate a time-variant measure for occupational exposure to AI across subdomains of AI, such as language modelling. According to the model, white collar occupations are most exposed to AI, and especially white collar work that entails relatively little social interaction. We illustrate its usefulness by applying it to near-universal data on firms and individuals from Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal, and estimating firm labour demand regressions. We find a positive (negative) association between AI exposure and labour demand for high-skilled white (blue) collar work. Overall, there is an up-skilling effect, with the share of white-collar to blue collar workers increasing with AI exposure. Exposure to AI within the subdomains of image and language are positively (negatively) linked to demand for high-skilled white collar (blue collar) work, whereas other AI-areas are heterogeneously linked to groups of workers.

What are the distributional consequences of migration, and how do they affect attitudes toward migration? In this paper we leverage a natural experiment generated by the ousting of former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, which created an unprecedented influx of economic migrants from African countries to Europe. This surge of low-skilled labor benefited low-productivity firms by lowering their production costs and expanding their labor supply. Employing a triple difference-in-differences design, we document that attitudes toward migration became more positive in Western European regions with large shares of migrants and low-productivity firms. Evidence from Sweden, which provides finely grained geographical data, confirms these findings. We then test the economic microfoundations of this attitudinal shift. We show that the surge in the supply of low-skilled labor increased the profitability of low-productivity firms more in areas that experienced larger migration flows. We find no evidence that migration worsened natives’ labor market conditions.

Offshoring continues to be an important dimension of firms' internationalization choices. However, offshoring also increases contract enforcement costs by inhibiting the coordination and monitoring of performance. Immigrant employees may reduce such costs through their specific knowledge of the employer, their country of birth and access to foreign networks. In this paper, we investigate the role of immigrant employees within firms on firm offshoring, employing rich administrative Swedish microlevel data that include specific information about the characteristics of employees, manufacturing firms and their bilateral offshoring. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrant employees increase offshoring by lowering contract enforcement costs. Hiring one additional immigrant employee is linked to a relatively larger increase in offshoring at the intensive than the extensive margin, on average. The association to offshoring is considerably stronger for skilled immigrant employees and for contract and R&D intensive offshoring. Instrumental variable estimations demonstrate qualitatively similar results, while a placebo test with randomized immigrant employment does not generate any link between immigrants and offshoring.

Introduction: Delayed puberty in boys, defined as lack of pubertal onset by the age of 14 years, is often constitutional and self-limited. However, it can lead to feelings of sadness and anxiety. The long-term health consequences of delayed puberty in males are not well understood.

Objective: To study the long-term morbidity in young men exposed to delayed puberty.

Methods: All Swedish men born between 1991 and 1993 who were diagnosed with delayed puberty at the ages of 14.0–17.9 years were identified in nation-wide registries. For each index person, 10 control individuals were randomly selected, matched for sex, year of birth, and county of residence. Swedish nation-wide registries were also used to determine outcomes, including inpatient and outpatient care, prescription of medications, and mortality. The outcomes were tracked annually from the age of 18 until the end of year 2022 (approximately 30 years of age).

Results: 1,245 men with delayed puberty and 12,450 control individuals were identified and included in the study. During the follow-up period, 32% of those with delayed puberty had at least one inpatient care occasion compared to 27% of those without delayed puberty (p < 0.001). Among those with at least one inpa-tient care occasion, men with delayed puberty had more inpatient stays compared to control individuals (median (25–75th percentile) 1 (1–3) vs. 1 (1–2), p = 0.016). A higher proportion of men with delayed puberty had a hospital-based outpatient visit compared to control individuals (90% vs. 86%, p < 0.001). The number of outpatient visits was higher in men with delayed puberty (6 (2–14) vs. 4 (1–10), p < 0.001). In addition, prescriptions of medications were provided more often to men with delayed puberty (16 (6–45) vs. 10 (4–25), p < 0.001). Ten men with delayed puberty and 95 control individuals died during the follow-up (0.80% vs. 0.76%, p = 0.879). Most deaths were due to injuries or intoxications. Among deceased men, those with delayed puberty were older when they died (27.5 years (26–29) vs. 24 years (21–26), p = 0.031).

Conclusion: Delayed puberty in boys is associated with a higher frequency of inpatient stays, outpatient visits, and prescription of medications in young adulthood. This indicates that male delayed puberty is not harmless, and careful follow-up of these patients is needed. Further investigations of the increased need of health care are warranted.