Open this publication in new window or tab >>Department of Urology, Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Urology, Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Urology, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
Örebro University, School of Medical Sciences. Örebro University Hospital. Department of Urology.
Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Sahlgrenska Academy Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala, University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Sahlgrenska Academy Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Oncology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Department of Pelvic Cancer, Genitourinary Oncology and Urology Unit, Theme Cancer, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Oncology and Pathology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Surgical Oncology (Urology), Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala, University, Uppsala, Sweden; School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK.
School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK; Northern Register Centre, Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Oncology, Umeå University, Sweden.
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2025 (English)In: European Urology Open Science, ISSN 2666-1691, E-ISSN 2666-1683, Vol. 80, p. 33-37Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
The European Association of Urology (EAU) 2021 prognostic model for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is based on the World Health Organization (WHO) 1973 and/or WHO 2004/2022 grading systems for patients who did not receive bacillus Calmette-Gu & eacute;rin (BCG) instillations and is widely used to assess the risk of progression. The estimated risk of progression affects the type of adjuvant intravesical instillation (chemotherapy or BCG), with primary radical cystectomy recommended for patients with the highest risk of progression. We applied the EAU 2021 prognostic model in a population-based setting for 3392 patients with primary NMIBC diagnosed in 2013-2014 according to the BladderBaSe 2.0 database. We assessed the model calibration by comparing the 5-yr progression probability observed in our cohort with the predicted progression probability assigned for the risk groups in the original EAU study, and evaluated the discrimination according to Harrell's C index. At 5-yr follow-up, 394 patients had experienced disease progression. The progression probability observed was 4.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.5-6.3%), 8.6% (95% CI 6.9-10%), 25% (95% CI 22-28%), and 23% (95% CI 14-30%) for the low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk groups, respectively. The discrimination at 5 yr was 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.78) for the overall cohort and 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.80) in the group excluding the 811 patients who received BCG instillations. Showing moderate predictive ability, the EAU 2021 prognostic model has clinical utility in population-based settings despite underestimation of the observed progression risk in the low-and high-risk groups in the current study. Patient summary: W of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer using results for a group of Swedish patients. Approxim more advanced dis e looked at how well a model predicted the risk of progression ately one in four patients in the high-risk category progress to ease within 5 yr. Doctors and patients need to consider the probability of progr on which treatment ess ion in the high-risk category when making shared decisions is best for an individual patient. (c) 2025 The Author(s). Urology. This is an op Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of en access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creative-commons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, Adjuvant treatment, Primary radical cystectomy, Progression risk, Prognostic mode
National Category
Urology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-123849 (URN)10.1016/j.euros.2025.08.003 (DOI)001566883000001 ()40979267 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105014824192 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Cancer Society, 2022/1971Swedish Cancer Society, 2023/2807Swedish Research Council, 2021-00859Familjen Hjelms stiftelse för medicinsk forskningSjöberg FoundationStiftelsen Gösta Jönssons forskningsfondStiftelsen Hillevi Fries forskningsfond
Note
This work was supported by the Swedish Cancer Society (CAN 2022/1971 and 2023/2807), the Swedish Research Council (2021-00859), Lund Medical Faculty (Avtal om. Läkarutbildning och Forskning, ALF), Skåne University Hospital Research Funds, the Hjelm Foundation, the Cancer Research Fund at Malmö General Hospital, the Skåne County Council Research and Development Foundation, the Sjöberg Foundation, the Gösta Jönsson Research Foundation, the Foundation of Urological Research (Ove and Carin Carlsson bladder cancer donation and Astrid and Roland Bengtsson upper tract urothelial carcinoma donation), the Hillevi Fries Research Foundation, and a regional agreement between Umeå University and Region Västerbotten (ALF).
2025-09-222025-09-222026-01-23Bibliographically approved