To Örebro University

oru.seÖrebro universitets publikasjoner
Endre søk
RefereraExporteraLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet. Centre for Transport Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
2016 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Reducing uncertainty can still be worthwhile, however, because of the huge amounts of money at stake: a 10% reduction in general uncertainty can increase the realized benefits of a national infrastructure investment plan by nearly 100 million euro (assuming that decisions are based on the CBAs). We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: Centre for Transport Studies, KTH , 2016. , s. 18
Serie
CTS Working Paper ; 2016:8
Emneord [en]
Cost-benefit analysis, infrastructure investments, uncertainty, robustness
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-50391OAI: oai:DiVA.org:oru-50391DiVA, id: diva2:930538
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-05-24 Laget: 2016-05-24 Sist oppdatert: 2018-07-10bibliografisk kontrollert

Open Access i DiVA

Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?(787 kB)1582 nedlastinger
Filinformasjon
Fil FULLTEXT02.pdfFilstørrelse 787 kBChecksum SHA-512
851579aea5b9abd9c1905b8558078ed5d697494b5b438a7ffce8b5fd048eb27e73f1241a8fdbe28e6c45bd3efcb13f484843dcaffda99f7c58576b2532f4819d
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Person

Thureson, Disa

Søk i DiVA

Av forfatter/redaktør
Thureson, Disa
Av organisasjonen

Søk utenfor DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 1585 nedlastinger
Antall nedlastinger er summen av alle nedlastinger av alle fulltekster. Det kan for eksempel være tidligere versjoner som er ikke lenger tilgjengelige

urn-nbn

Altmetric

urn-nbn
Totalt: 386 treff
RefereraExporteraLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf