In Sweden, compulsory school grades determine admission to upper- secondary school. The article maps grading outcomes in compulsory school for 1990–2017, when three different grading scales were used, in terms of students’ distribution across grading steps. Statistics of grades for all Swedish grade 9 students (all school subjects) are used. Contrary to policymakers’ expectations, the results show that a large proportion of students failed to pass compulsory school immediately after a criterion-referenced system with a sharp pass/fail distinction was introduced in the late 1990s. The failure rate has since then remained strikingly constant. Swedish as a second language differs from the main pattern, with a substantially higher failure rate that is increasing over time. This outcome is discussed with reference to grading policy as a matter of social choice.