Till Örebro universitet

There are multiple geographical crime prediction techniques to use and comparing different prediction techniques therefore becomes important. In the current study we compared the accuracy (Predictive Accuracy Index) and precision (Recapture Rate Index) of simply counting crimes: Simple Count with Kernel Density Estimation in the prediction of where people are reported to commit violent crimes (assault and robbery) and property crimes (residential burglary, property damage, theft, vehicle theft and arson), geographically. These predictions were done using a different number of years into the future and based on a different number of years combined to do the crime prediction, in a large Swedish municipality. The Simple Count technique performed quite well in comparison to simple Kernel Density Estimation no matter what crime was being predicted, making us conclude that it may not be necessary to use the more complex method of Kernel Density Estimation to predict where people are reported to commit crime geographically.

Perceived unsafety, fear of crime, and avoidance were studied in relation to different types of crime, crime in different time perspectives, concentrated disadvantage, collective efficacy, urbanity, age structure, and neighborhood disorder. Four data sources were used on a large Swedish city; a community survey from 2012 and 2015 among residents, census data on socio-demographics, police data on reported violent (assault and robbery in the public environment), and property crimes (arson, property damage, theft, vehicle theft, and residential burglary) and geographical information on local bus stops and annual passengers visiting these bus stops. Collective efficacy primarily, but also concentrated disadvantage, was strongly related to perceived unsafety, across 102 neighborhoods. Collective efficacy was strongly related to fear of crime. It was not viable to relate the neighborhood variables with avoidance, however. Fear of specific violent crimes was different from fear of specific property crimes and should for future reference be examined separately. Crime, visible disorder, urbanity, and age structure do not seem as important.